Jerry Carl Says Packed Mobile Arena Answers Questions About Trump’s Popularity in 1st District Race

MOBILE, Ala. — Former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl said Friday that reporters had asked him before President Donald Trump’s Mobile rally whether the president’s slipping popularity would hurt his comeback campaign, and he told the crowd inside the Mitchell Center that the packed arena gave him his answer.

“We were doing our interviews earlier. ‘You know, with the decline in Donald Trump’s popularity, how do you feel like it’s going to hurt you?’” Carl said from the stage at the University of South Alabama. “I’m looking in this room, going, I think it looks pretty darn good.”

Carl, a Republican from Mobile, is his party’s nominee in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District, the seat he held from 2021 to 2025. Trump endorsed him in June. He faces Democrat Clyde Jones in the Nov. 3 general election.

Back on the ballot in the 1st District

Carl represented the Mobile-based 1st District for two terms. Court-ordered redistricting ahead of the 2024 elections placed him in the same district as fellow Republican U.S. Rep. Barry Moore, and Moore won the Republican primary that year. Moore is now the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor.

Under the state’s new congressional map, Mobile is part of the 1st District, which is rated solidly Republican, and Carl is widely expected to return to Congress. The district’s recent primary saw extremely low turnout, and Carl has said he hopes the president’s visit will help energize voters.

“I see some excitement here that I haven’t seen in this race in the last 14 months, and that’s what it’s about right there,” Carl said. “Trump can wake folks up.”

The Mobile River Bridge and Bayway

Carl pointed to Friday’s groundbreaking on the Mobile River Bridge and Bayway, the $3.2 billion Interstate 10 project that state and federal officials launched hours before the rally. Gov. Kay Ivey and U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy took part in the ceremony, and the Trump administration finalized a $2.52 billion federal loan for the project in September.

“President Trump helped us secure the loan to finish that project, and we’re so excited to have the opportunity to get that done under his watch and his time in office,” Carl said.

Trump also highlighted the project in his speech, saying it “was made possible with $3 billion in funding from the Trump administration.” He joked, “Maybe they’ll name the damn bridge after me,” adding, “Make it the greatest bridge.” Earlier in the program, Moore told the crowd he has proposed naming the crossing “the gateway to America Donald J. Trump bridge.”

For Mobile and Baldwin County residents, the bridge has been a decades-long topic of debate. The existing I-10 crossing through the George Wallace Tunnels and over the Bayway is a well-known bottleneck for commuters, freight and summer beach traffic between the Port City and the Eastern Shore.

Greenland, Iran and national security

Carl devoted part of his speech to foreign policy, starting with Greenland.

“Everyone thought that he was a little wacko about the Greenland deal, and we all kind of laughed about it. But now that the deal is done, we all understand,” Carl said. “We have protection from the north now, and from the south, we are closed, closed, and closed.”

He then turned to Iran, where the United States is at war. “For 48 years, we have lived in terror from the Iranians threatening us with nuclear power. We finally got a president in office that said, ‘You’re not going to do that,’” Carl said. “Now they live looking down the barrel of a gun, and just for the record, the three top layers of leadership over there are gone.”

Trump addressed the war in his own speech later in the evening, saying it should be over after the midterm elections and acknowledging its effect on fuel costs. “On the price of oil, we’re paying a price,” Trump said. “But boy is it a small price to pay compared to those lunatics putting a nuclear weapon right over Mobile, Alabama.”

Carl’s case against Democrats

Carl argued that Democrats have had ample time in power to address voters’ economic concerns.

“The Democrats have been in power 12 of the last 16 years. Think about that. They have done nothing on gas prices, food prices, housing prices, border issues, bringing down healthcare costs or jobs,” he said. “But now, all of a sudden, they got it figured out. Trump is the problem. Let’s get rid of Trump, and everything else will take care of itself. We have got to back our president today, everybody.”

Carl then read from something he said he had come across recently. “I read this the other day. It makes more sense than anything I’ve read in a long time,” he said. “The Democrat Party promotes communism and socialism, which has killed 100 million people over history. They back radical Islamic terrorists who have killed hundreds of thousands of people over history. Last but not least, they are in support of full-term abortion. Those butchers killed 73 million unborn children a year, and they want to be a big tent.”

“The only thing the Democrats have to offer is higher taxes, open borders, socialism, abortion, and free healthcare for all at our working people’s expense,” Carl said.

Gas prices and the president’s poll numbers

In an interview before the rally, Carl acknowledged that voters are worried about gas prices and the cost of living. “We’re doing our best to get through this,” he said.

“Nationally, there’s no way anyone gets elected into an office that their numbers don’t drop the first or second year,” Carl said. “I’m not making excuses for anybody. It’s hard times, we’ve got a war in Iran. But thank God we’re not looking down the barrel of a nuclear weapon either.”

He said the visit was aimed at energizing Republicans. “We need to stimulate our base for folks to get out and vote, and there’s no better person in the Republican party better than Donald Trump,” Carl said.

Polling paints a mixed picture of Trump’s standing in Alabama. Civiqs’ rolling tracker shows the president with a net approval rating of +5 in the state, in contrast to negative ratings in most other states. A separate new poll put his favorability in Alabama slightly underwater, at 44.3% favorable and 46.7% unfavorable, though that survey was not focused on Trump.

What his opponent says

Clyde Jones, Carl’s Democratic opponent, agreed that Trump’s visit would motivate voters — but said it would energize Democrats.

“This only adds to the motivation (of) the people who are already upset about our state legislature redistricting and redrawing the lines,” Jones said. “So this just adds a little more fuel to the fire, I believe, to get people to the polls.”

Political scientists have cautioned that candidate stops rarely produce a measurable surge in turnout on Election Day, citing research and the 2018 midterms, the last midterm election held while Trump was in office. Joseph Aistrup, a political science professor at Auburn University, said research suggests Trump’s presence tends to mobilize supporters and opponents alike, driving donations to both sides.

The rally’s location in Carl’s district was itself part of the political calculation, according to Benjamin Gross, director of the Center of Leadership and American Principles at Jacksonville State University. Gross said that by holding the event in a safe Republican seat rather than in the competitive 2nd District, Trump could limit the Democratic spending a visit there might provoke. Trump’s Mobile stop was one of a series planned in Republican-leaning states; the president has said he intends to visit 35 locations in the month before Election Day.

‘You are the answer’

Carl closed by telling the crowd that the outcome is in their hands, and that their reach extends beyond Alabama’s borders.

“Today, I want everyone to understand: you are the answer to this situation. You, as individuals, you as a voter, you will make the choice,” Carl said. “Not just you, not just your Sunday school class, not just your family, but the people that you touch: Alabama, Mississippi, Florida. We got to turn out.”

“My name is Jerry Carl, and I’m humbly asking for your vote in District One,” he said. “God bless America. God bless our families. And God bless our warriors that at this very moment are literally defending our rights to be here together.”

Later in the evening, Trump called Carl to the stage first as he brought up Alabama candidates one by one, followed by state Rep. Rhett Marques, Moore and Tuberville. “This is a team effort here,” Carl said. “We’re going to win together. Nov. 3.”

What happens next

The general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voters in the 1st Congressional District, which includes Mobile, will choose between Carl and Jones. Statewide, voters will also decide races for governor, lieutenant governor and U.S. Senate.

Because district boundaries have changed, voters unsure of which congressional district they live in can check their sample ballot or registration through the Alabama Secretary of State’s office or the Mobile County Board of Registrars. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and Alabama voters must show an approved photo ID.