Forecaster Shifts Alabama’s 2nd District Race to ‘Leans Republican’ as Figures, Marques Enter Final Days

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — A prominent nonpartisan political forecaster has moved Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District race one step closer to a tossup, shifting its rating for Alabama’s 2nd District from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 election. The change suggests analysts see an improving path for Democratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, who is trying to hold a seat that was redrawn earlier this year to favor Republicans.

Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques of Enterprise remains the favorite in the forecaster’s view, and several other rating organizations also continue to give Republicans the edge in the district. But those groups describe the contest as close to a tossup, and the latest shift marks the first movement toward Democrats by this forecaster since early summer.

As South AL News reported in late September, the race had moved from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” in late June and had held in that category through the fall. The new rating moves it into the “Lean” category, where forecasters place races they consider competitive but in which one party still holds an advantage.

Figures: ‘Momma didn’t raise no quitter’

Figures spent Thursday night, Oct. 22, campaigning across the district with stops in Dothan, Montgomery and Enterprise. He was joined by U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Doug Jones, the Democratic nominee for governor.

At a rally in Montgomery, the district’s largest city, Figures addressed the redistricting that reshaped his district.

“They tried to make this district one that we cannot win,” Figures said. “But momma didn’t raise no quitter.”

Figures is among the Black Democrats in Congress working to hold seats that were changed by redistricting in 2026.

Marques leans on Trump endorsement

Marques has made his alignment with President Donald Trump a centerpiece of his campaign. Trump endorsed him, and Marques spoke with the president at a rally in Mobile on Oct. 2, where he thanked Trump for his support and urged Republicans to turn out.

Marques has accused Figures of representing “craziness over common sense,” a phrase Republicans have used against Democratic candidates across the state this fall. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise campaigned with Marques in Dothan earlier this week, and the Young Republican Federation of Alabama held its state meeting in Enterprise and spent a weekend knocking doors for him.

Both candidates have been campaigning across the district on taxes, affordability and health care, issues that have dominated the race along with fuel prices, the farm bill and tariffs.

What the rating categories mean

Election forecasters typically sort House races into a scale that runs from safe for one party to safe for the other:

• Solid or Safe: The race is not considered competitive.
• Likely: The race could become competitive, but one party has a clear advantage.
• Lean: The race is competitive, but one party holds an edge.
• Tossup: Either party could win.

Ratings are not polls or predictions of a final margin. They are judgments by analysts who weigh a district’s partisan makeup, candidate quality, fundraising, outside spending, available polling and the national political environment. A shift from Likely to Lean means the forecaster now sees the race as genuinely competitive, even though it still views Marques as more likely to win.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics had already rated the district “Lean Republican,” one step away from a tossup. Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst with the center, said earlier this month that “Democrats have a fighting chance to holding AL-2.”

A district remade by redistricting

The Alabama Legislature redrew Figures’ district earlier this year, after years of litigation over the state’s congressional map and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, to make it more favorable to Republicans.

Figures won the seat in 2024 under a map drawn after courts found the state needed a second district in which Black voters would have an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice. The new 2nd District, which includes Montgomery, Dothan and much of the Wiregrass, is whiter and more rural. It no longer includes Mobile County, where Figures grew up and built his political base. Trump would have carried the area by roughly 14 percentage points in 2024, according to analyses of the new lines.

The redrawn district’s voting-age population is about 53% white and 39% Black. Analysts have said turnout is likely to decide the race. Democrats are counting on strong participation in Montgomery County, the district’s largest population center, along with smaller cities such as Tuskegee, Union Springs, Hayneville and Phenix City. Republicans are relying on heavy margins in Wiregrass counties such as Houston, Coffee, Dale and Geneva.

Figures registered to vote in Montgomery in early October after the new map moved Mobile out of the district.

Polls and money

Public polling in the race has been limited. An average of the few public surveys has shown Marques with about a 4-point advantage. The most recent public poll, released in September by House Majority PAC, a Democratic group, and conducted by Tulchin Research, found the candidates tied at 47% each. Polls sponsored by partisan organizations should be read with caution.

Figures holds a significant fundraising advantage. He raised more than $1 million in the third quarter and entered October with $1.38 million in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission reports. Marques raised about $317,000 over the same period and began October with about $328,000.

Outside groups are also spending heavily. A super PAC affiliated with Democratic Majority for Israel is set to spend $2 million supporting Figures, and a super PAC tied to Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has spent more than $1.4 million on ads backing him, according to a report published Friday. A super PAC aligned with Trump has spent about $2.1 million supporting Marques.

Who the candidates are

Shomari Figures, a Democrat, is a Mobile native seeking a second term. Before running for Congress, he worked in Washington, including as deputy chief of staff and counselor to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland. He has been endorsed by Democratic-aligned groups including the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund and the League of Conservation Voters.

Rhett Marques, a Republican, has represented an Enterprise-area district in the Alabama House since 2018. He won the Republican nomination in August. His endorsements include Trump, U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, the Alabama Farmers Federation, the National Federation of Independent Business, the Alabama Forestry Association, the Home Builders Association of Alabama and Manufacture Alabama.

The two have also sparred over debates. Figures has accepted three debate invitations, while Marques has said he will not debate.

Why the race matters nationally

The outcome could have consequences well beyond Alabama. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the U.S. House, where a party needs 218 of the 435 seats to control the chamber. That makes every competitive district important to Republicans hoping to keep their majority and continue advancing Trump’s agenda, and to Democrats hoping to take control.

National forecasters have projected that Democrats are in a position to win the House this fall. In that environment, Alabama’s 2nd District is one of a handful of Southern seats redrawn to favor Republicans that analysts are watching as a signal of how strong the national tide is. Two other districts redrawn after the Supreme Court ruling, Louisiana’s 6th and Tennessee’s 9th, have been viewed as safer Republican pickups.

What to know before you vote

• Election Day: Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
• Absentee ballots: Mailed applications must be received by Oct. 27; in-person applications are due Oct. 29.
• Photo ID: Alabama requires an approved photo ID to vote. Free voter ID cards are available to registered voters who need one.
• Check your district: Because congressional lines changed this year, voters can confirm their district and polling place at AlabamaVotes.gov or through their county board of registrars.

Forecasters can update their ratings again before Election Day, and both campaigns are expected to keep crisscrossing the district through the final weekend of the race.