MOBILE, Ala. — With just over five weeks remaining before Election Day, national election forecasters are projecting that Democrats are on track to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, and one of the races drawing attention in that national picture is right here in South Alabama.
Nonpartisan analysts shifted 15 House races in Democrats’ favor this week, according to their latest ratings. Democrats are now favored in 208 House races rated Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, compared with 205 races favored for Republicans. The remaining seats are considered toss-ups.
Among the races that have shown movement this year is Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile, is seeking a second term against state Rep. Rhett Marques, R-Enterprise. The race shifted from “Solid” Republican to “Likely” Republican in late June and remained in that category in the latest ratings.
The national picture
A party needs 218 seats to control the 435-member House. According to the latest forecasts, the estimates suggest Democrats could ultimately gain between five and 15 seats, which would give the party between 220 and 230 seats, enough to take the majority from Republicans.
Analysts said Republicans are on track to lose their House majority despite several factors that would normally work in their favor, including a push for mid-decade redistricting in several states, a large financial advantage, and an opposition party that remains unpopular with many voters.
The Senate is a separate contest with its own math. According to the analysis, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate in 2026, which would require the party to defend every seat it currently holds and flip four more.
Key numbers at a glance
- House races newly shifted toward Democrats: 15
- Races favored for Democrats (Solid, Likely or Lean): 208
- Races favored for Republicans: 205
- Seats needed for a House majority: 218
- Projected Democratic gain: 5 to 15 seats, for a total of 220 to 230
- Net Senate seats Democrats need to flip: 4
- Alabama’s 2nd District rating: Likely Republican (shifted from Solid Republican in late June)
- Election Day: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026
What “Likely Republican” means
Election forecasters typically sort races into several categories. “Solid” seats are not considered competitive. “Likely” seats are not considered close at the moment, but have the potential to become competitive. “Lean” seats are considered competitive, with one party holding an advantage, and “Toss-up” seats are considered races either party could win.
The move of Alabama’s 2nd District from Solid to Likely Republican in June signaled that analysts see the race as more competitive than they initially expected, even though they still consider Marques the favorite. The rating has held steady since then, meaning forecasters have not seen enough movement to push the race into the Lean or Toss-up categories, but have also not moved it back into the safe column.
It is worth noting that a Likely Republican rating for a seat currently held by a Democrat reflects the district’s underlying partisan makeup. The 2nd District’s boundaries have been at the center of years of redistricting litigation, and its lines now lean Republican, which is why forecasters view Figures as defending a seat that favors the other party.
A tied poll
Polling has suggested the race may be tighter than the ratings indicate. An internal poll conducted this summer by a national Democratic organization showed Marques and Figures tied at 46 percent each, with 8 percent of voters undecided.
The survey of 421 likely voters in the district was conducted July 29-30 and has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points. As with any internal poll released by a party or partisan group, readers should keep in mind that such surveys are sometimes released strategically, and independent polling of the district has been limited. Still, the result helps explain why both parties are paying close attention to the race.
The candidates
Shomari Figures won the seat in 2024, becoming one of the most closely watched freshman members of Congress from the Deep South. A Mobile native, Figures previously served in the Obama administration and at the U.S. Department of Justice. In recent weeks he has continued campaigning across the district, which stretches from Mobile through the Black Belt and the Wiregrass. He recently introduced legislation to pay college costs for the children of teachers, first responders and social workers, and at a Geneva campaign stop he criticized Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s remarks on fuel prices as “beyond irresponsible.” He has also criticized the Trump administration’s plan to lower import tariffs on foreign beef, an issue he has raised in appeals to cattle producers in the district’s rural counties.
Rhett Marques is a Republican member of the Alabama House of Representatives from Enterprise, in Coffee County, and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. As a member of the Alabama Legislature, he has a record of votes on state issues that his campaign has pointed to as he seeks federal office. Earlier this month he toured the Academy of Craft Training’s Mobile campus as the construction industry pressed its case for workforce investment.
Trump comes to Mobile
The race will get another burst of national attention this week when President Trump holds a rally in Mobile on Friday, Oct. 2. The president is expected to campaign for top-of-the-ticket Alabama Republicans, and Mobile’s location near the 2nd District gives the event added significance for the House race. For more, see our coverage of the Mobile rally plans and of how polls measure the president’s popularity in Alabama.
Republicans have said the rally will energize their voters. Democrats have pointed to the president’s decision to campaign in strongly Republican states as a sign that the party is concerned about its standing nationally.
Why the 2nd District matters
In a year when the House majority could be decided by a handful of seats, every competitive race carries national weight. For Republicans, winning Alabama’s 2nd District would offset losses elsewhere. For Democrats, holding the seat would make it easier to reach or exceed the 218 seats needed for control.
The race also carries local significance. The district includes Mobile and much of South and Southeast Alabama, and its representative plays a role in federal decisions affecting the Port of Mobile, military and defense employers, agriculture, transportation projects, and federal funding for rural communities.
What voters should know
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Alabama voters must be registered to vote, and the state requires voters to show a valid photo ID at the polls. Voters can check their registration status and find their polling place through the Alabama Secretary of State’s website. Those who plan to vote by absentee ballot should review the state’s eligibility rules and deadlines as early as possible.
In addition to the House race, Alabama voters will decide contests for governor, U.S. Senate, lieutenant governor and other statewide and local offices. Residents looking for help understanding their ballot may find resources through local civic groups, including recent events such as the “Know What You’re Voting For” civics conversation in Mobile.
The bottom line
Forecasters currently see Alabama’s 2nd District as Likely Republican, while a summer internal poll showed a tie. National ratings suggest Democrats are positioned to retake the House. With campaigns entering their final weeks and a presidential rally scheduled in Mobile, the race between Figures and Marques is likely to remain one of the most closely watched contests in the Deep South through Election Day.