Alabama 2nd District Poll Shows Marques Up 2 on Figures as Trump Releases New Video

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — A new Alabama 2nd District poll shows Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques holding a 2-point edge over Democratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures in the race for the 2nd Congressional District seat, a margin that leaves the contest within reach for either candidate as the campaign enters its last weekend before the Nov. 3 general election.

The survey by Remington Research Group, a Republican-aligned polling firm, found Marques at 48% and Figures at 46% among 642 likely voters interviewed Oct. 23–25. The poll was released this week as President Donald Trump stepped up his public support for Marques, posting a new video Thursday that called Figures a “Dumocrat communist” and urged Republicans in the district to vote.

Figures answered by saying Marques should “stop letting Trump do all this lying for him,” while the Marques campaign dismissed suggestions that the Republican is underperforming in a district redrawn earlier this year to favor the GOP.

What the Remington poll found

Beyond the head-to-head numbers, the survey asked voters about several political figures. According to the results:

• Head-to-head: Marques 48%, Figures 46%.
• Donald Trump: 47% of respondents had a favorable opinion of the president.
• Tommy Tuberville: 47% had a favorable opinion of the U.S. senator, who is the Republican nominee for governor.
• Rhett Marques: 33% had a favorable opinion of the Republican nominee, 37% had an unfavorable opinion and 30% had no opinion of him.

Respondents gave Figures a higher favorability rating than Marques, according to the results, and many said they did not know who Marques was. That finding reflects the different positions of the two candidates: Figures is a sitting member of Congress who represents much of the new district, while Marques, a state legislator from Enterprise, is introducing himself to many voters outside his home area for the first time.

A 2-point gap is small for a poll of this size, and surveys released by firms aligned with either party are generally read with caution. Public polling in the race has been limited. A Democratic-sponsored survey by Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC, conducted in late August and released in September, found the two candidates tied at 47%.

Signs of a tightening race

The poll is one of several indicators that the contest has grown more competitive in the closing weeks. On Tuesday, a nonpartisan political forecaster moved the race from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” a shift in Democrats’ favor. The previous Friday, another national forecaster moved the district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

Privately and publicly, some Republican operatives and independent observers have said Marques, who has the endorsement of Trump and the support of the Alabama Republican Party, is underperforming expectations in a district that was drawn to favor Republicans.

Marques dismissed those critics on Wednesday. A campaign spokeswoman, Saylor Cuzzort, said he had made 20 stops across the district in the past week.

“This race comes down to craziness versus common sense,” Cuzzort said. “A vote for Shomari is a vote for socialist policies that punish hard work and put illegal aliens ahead of Alabama families. We’re confident that voters will reject crazy, and common sense will prevail come Tuesday.”

Figures pointed to his record in office and to the reception his campaign has received.

Figures said he has “a record of delivering for this district, not being viewed as an extremist, and prioritizing the people at home.” He added: “Voters know this and it’s reflective of the support we have seen. We will continue pounding the pavement and taking our message to the people to encourage them to vote for us on November 3rd.”

Trump’s new video for Marques

Trump has weighed in on the race repeatedly this week. On Monday, he renewed his endorsement of Marques in a social media post that called Figures “Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous!” On Thursday morning, he posted a video statement encouraging Republicans in the district to make sure they vote for Marques on Election Day.

“I’m asking you to get out and vote for Rhett Marques to be your next representative for Alabama’s second congressional district,” Trump said in the video. “He has my complete and total endorsement—a great person.”

Trump praised Marques as a small business owner and pointed to his votes on state tax cuts. “Rhett is a successful small business owner who voted to cut your taxes by $1.5 billion in the state legislature,” the president said. He said Marques would, as a member of Congress, “vote to keep our border strong and secure like I’ve done,” support the military, lower energy costs and “defend Alabama values all the way.”

The president also attacked Figures. “Alabama needs to fire this Dumocrat communist and elect Rhett Marques to Congress,” Trump said.

Trump criticized Figures’ votes in Congress, saying the congressman voted against what Trump called “the largest tax cuts in American history,” a reference to the 2025 tax-and-spending package Republicans named the One Big Beautiful Bill. He also accused Figures of wanting to release people convicted of violent crimes from jail and said Figures voted “in favor of the transgender mutilation of your children, in favor of men in women’s sports, and against hundreds of millions of dollars to save Alabama’s rural hospitals.”

Figures has disputed Republican characterizations of his record on transgender issues. In a television ad his campaign released Wednesday, the congressman said, “Here’s the truth, I voted against biological men playing in women’s sports because I don’t support it. Same with surgeries for minors; never have supported it and never will.”

Trump appeared with Marques at a rally in Mobile earlier in October, where Marques spoke to the crowd and the president promoted Republican candidates in several Alabama races.

Figures responds: ‘the wrong bio’

Figures responded to the video on Thursday by turning the focus to Marques’ tax record in the Alabama Legislature.

“They gave Donald Trump the wrong bio on Rhett, because he didn’t talk about Rhett’s illustrious career of raising taxes in Alabama 22 times, including raising the gas and diesel taxes by 67%,” Figures said.

He said Marques should “stop letting Trump do all this lying for him.”

Taxes and the cost of living have been at the center of the race. Figures voted against the 2025 tax-and-spending law backed by Trump, which included tax cuts along with changes to federal programs that Democrats opposed. Marques, for his part, voted in 2019, along with most of the Alabama Legislature, for the Rebuild Alabama Act, which raised the state’s fuel tax by 10 cents per gallon over three years to pay for road and bridge work. Marques has defended that vote as a safety measure for aging bridges, while Figures and his allies have made it a central line of attack.

A district redrawn for 2026

Republicans have hoped to pick up the seat since Alabama returned to the congressional map the Legislature drew in 2023. That map had been blocked by federal courts, which found it diluted the voting strength of Black residents. The U.S. Supreme Court lifted the injunction on the map earlier this year after its 6–3 decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which struck down race-based redistricting.

Figures won the seat in 2024 under a court-ordered map that stretched the district from Mobile to the Georgia line. The current version of the 2nd District takes in parts of the Wiregrass along with the cities of Montgomery and Dothan. It is considered more favorable to Republicans: Trump would have carried it by about 14 percentage points in 2024, according to analyses of the new lines.

Figures, a Mobile native, moved to Montgomery after the new map took effect. Marques, of Enterprise, has served in the Alabama House since 2018 and won the Republican nomination in an Aug. 11 special primary.

The closing days of the campaign

Both candidates are crisscrossing the district in the final days, campaigning on taxes, affordability and health care. Montgomery, the district’s largest city, is the core of the Democratic vote in the new district, while the Wiregrass counties around Dothan and Enterprise lean heavily Republican. Analysts have said turnout in those areas is likely to decide the outcome.

The race is one of the most closely watched U.S. House contests in the country. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, and both parties view the 2nd District as a seat that could help determine which party controls the chamber next year. That has drawn national figures from both parties to the district in recent weeks and has brought millions of dollars in outside advertising to the Montgomery, Dothan and Columbus, Georgia, television markets.

What voters need to know

• Election Day: Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls in Alabama are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voters in line when polls close may still cast a ballot.
• Photo ID: Alabama requires voters to show an acceptable photo ID. Registered voters who lack one can obtain a free Alabama photo voter ID card.
• Check your district: Because congressional lines changed this year, some voters are in a different district than in 2024. Voters can confirm their district, polling place and sample ballot at AlabamaVotes.gov or through their county board of registrars.
• Absentee ballots: The deadline to apply for an absentee ballot has passed. Voters who already have an absentee ballot should check with their county absentee election manager about return deadlines, which fall before polls close on Election Day.

The 2nd District race shares the ballot with Alabama’s open governor’s race between Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones, as well as a U.S. Senate contest, and turnout in those statewide races could influence the congressional result.

Related coverage from South AL News

• Scalise Rallies for Marques in Alabama 2nd Congressional District Race Against Figures
• Forecaster Shifts Alabama's 2nd District Race to 'Leans Republican' as Figures, Marques Enter Final Days
• Trump Renews Marques Endorsement, Calls Figures 'Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous' as 2nd District Race Enters Final Week
• Outside Spending for Figures Grows as Pro-Israel Democratic PAC Plans $2 Million in 2nd District

Update: Final-weekend issues, ads and the district’s 2024 vote

With the race in its final weekend, both campaigns are leaning on familiar themes. If reelected, Figures says he will support local communities that do not want data centers built near them and work to improve conditions for rural health care and local farmers. Marques has campaigned on cutting taxes, helping small businesses and advancing Trump’s agenda, and he has said flipping the seat would let him better represent local voters.

Marques has run ads attacking Figures’ record in Congress, including one claiming Figures “supports men in girl’s locker rooms.” Earlier this year, Figures voted with Republicans for a measure that would bar transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports, after having voted against earlier legislation with similar aims.

Voters’ concerns tend to break along party lines. Republican voters in the district have pointed to crime, particularly in Montgomery, an issue Republican statewide nominees Tommy Tuberville and Katherine Robertson have pledged to address. Democratic voters have asked for relief from gasoline and diesel prices and the cost of other necessities.

Estimates of how strongly the new district leans Republican vary. One analysis finds Trump would have carried the redrawn 2nd District by more than 70,000 votes in 2024, a margin of about 20 percentage points, wider than the roughly 14-point estimate cited in other analyses. Either way, observers expect the outcome to hinge largely on turnout in Montgomery, the district’s largest city.