MOBILE, Ala. — As President Donald Trump prepares to rally supporters at the University of South Alabama’s Mitchell Center on Oct. 2, a question is circulating among candidates, pollsters and political scientists: How much has Trump’s approval in Alabama actually changed since his landslide win here two years ago?
The answer depends on whom you ask and which poll you read. National surveys show the president’s standing at historic lows amid the war in Iran, rising grocery and fuel prices and a series of controversies surrounding his administration. In Alabama, the picture is more mixed. Most measures still show Trump above water in the state, though several analysts say his support has softened, particularly in enthusiasm.
The rally, announced by the Republican National Committee this week, will be Trump’s first in Mobile in a decade and his first visit to Alabama since he took part in University of Alabama commencement activities in May 2025. It comes 32 days before the Nov. 3 general election.
At a glance: Trump’s approval by the numbers
- National average: VoteHub’s polling average shows Trump at a net approval of minus 22.4 percentage points, which it describes as worse than any president at this point in a term since polling began in 1945.
- Civiqs (Alabama): Net approval of plus 4, with 47% approving, 43% disapproving and 10% undecided.
- Another state-by-state analysis: 44.9% approval in Alabama, ranking the state 10th nationally in support for the president, behind Southern states such as Kentucky and Tennessee.
- Cygnal (Alabama): 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable, according to the Republican polling firm’s CEO.
- 2024 result: Trump carried Alabama by more than 30 percentage points over Democrat Kamala Harris.
How the rally came about
The timing of the announcement drew attention in its own right. A day earlier, former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, the Democratic nominee for governor, publicly invited the president to Mobile and offered to pay for his plane ticket, arguing that Trump’s unpopularity would help Democrats.
“He’s clearly the most unpopular president in my lifetime with maybe the exception of Richard Nixon at his lowest point,” Jones said.
Republicans took a very different view of the visit. John Wahl, the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, whom Trump endorsed in January, called the rally a “truly historic event.”
What the pollsters say
Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of the Alabama-based Republican polling firm Cygnal, said the state’s partisan lean remains overwhelming regardless of how voters feel about the president personally.
“Alabama is still very much a super red state,” Buchanan said. “A generic Republican leads a generic Democrat by double digits. The Democrat brand in Alabama isn’t something that appeals to the voters, even if they’re not the biggest fan of the president.”
Buchanan said Cygnal’s polling shows Trump with a 52% favorable rating and 45% unfavorable rating in the state. “Considering the near 100% negative media on him since he got back in office, I’d say that’s impressive,” he said.
Other measures come in lower. The Civiqs tracking survey of state-by-state job approval puts Trump at 47% approve and 43% disapprove in Alabama. A separate polling analysis places his approval at 44.9%, still among the stronger showings in the country but behind some neighboring Southern states. That same analysis found Trump underwater in 22 states he carried in 2024 and in 31 Republican-held congressional districts decided by fewer than 10 points.
Why the numbers differ
Readers comparing these figures should keep in mind that they do not all measure the same thing. “Job approval” asks whether a respondent approves of how the president is handling his job. “Favorability” asks whether the respondent has a positive or negative view of him as a person or public figure, and the two can diverge. Polls also differ in whom they survey, such as all adults, registered voters or likely voters, and in how they reach respondents, whether by phone, text or online panel. Tracking polls that update continuously can move differently than one-time surveys. Those methodological choices help explain how credible pollsters can report different results in the same state at the same time.
Signs of softening, according to some analysts
Several political scientists said they see evidence that Trump’s support in Alabama, while still solid, is less intense than it was.
Joseph Aistrup, a political science professor at Auburn University, pointed to fewer MAGA flags this summer on boats and around Lake Martin and the Gulf Coast as one informal indicator.
“Trump’s popularity has waned in Alabama,” Aistrup said. “That said, support for Trump remains steadfast among GOP identifiers. What’s dropped is their enthusiasm.”
Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of state politics, said national concerns reach Alabama voters, too.
“Alabamians are not isolated or immune from the effects of national developments,” Brown said.
Brown said voter frustration with the economy and the war in Iran has diminished Trump’s “political health” in the state. But he also noted that Trump’s support in Alabama has historically been so strong that a “decline in the state, while noticeable,” still leaves the president with a slightly positive image overall.
Unpopular nationally doesn’t mean vulnerable locally
Many political scientists caution against assuming that lower approval ratings will translate into Democratic wins in a state where Republicans have dominated for nearly two decades. Aside from Jones’ victory in the 2017 U.S. Senate special election, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Alabama since 2008. No Democrat has held the Governor’s Mansion since Don Siegelman left office in January 2003.
Scott Huffmon, a professor of political science and founder and director of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina, said polarization shapes how voters act on their disappointment.
“In times of incredible polarization like we are experiencing now, a voter could easily believe that ‘their guy’ was fumbling the ball but fully believe that handing the reins of power to the other guy would not just be worse, but be devastating to the nation at an existential level,” Huffmon said.
Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, said Alabama’s governor’s race is “not on anyone’s in-play list right now,” though he added that could change if Democrats see a substantial wave election on Nov. 3.
John Sides, chair of the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University, said a candidate like U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, the Republican nominee for governor, has little reason to distance himself from the president because “his seat is not in real danger.”
Alabama Republicans stay close to Trump
In several battleground states, Republican candidates have sought some distance from the president. Candidates in Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio have tried to put space between themselves and Trump’s policies, particularly on the war in Iran. In Florida, Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds removed many references to Trump from his campaign website, though his campaign denied it was backing away from the president’s agenda.
Alabama’s GOP ticket has moved in the opposite direction. U.S. Rep. Barry Moore of Enterprise, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has proposed naming the new Interstate 10 bridge in Mobile after Trump, and Wahl has pledged to help move that effort through the Legislature if elected lieutenant governor.
Tuberville, who faces Jones in November, said recently that he believes Alabamians will tolerate higher fuel prices because they broadly support Trump, pointing to the president’s electoral strength in the state. Tuberville has also publicly expressed confidence that Alabama’s electorate will carry him to victory. At the same time, one of his television ads focuses on his pledge to lower taxes and does not mention the president.
The races on the ballot
Trump’s visit to Mobile comes as voters in south Alabama weigh several contests on the Nov. 3 ballot:
- Governor: Republican Tommy Tuberville faces Democrat Doug Jones.
- U.S. Senate: Republican Barry Moore faces Democrat Everett Wess for the seat Tuberville is leaving.
- Lieutenant governor: Republican John Wahl is on the ballot for the state’s No. 2 office.
- 1st Congressional District: Former Republican U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl is running to return to the newly redrawn seat that includes Mobile.
- 2nd Congressional District: Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques is challenging Democratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures of Mobile in a closely watched race.
Mobile sits in the 1st District, which is rated solidly Republican. The neighboring 2nd District was redrawn this year and now leans Republican, but it has drawn heavy investment from both national parties.
A long record of Republican strength
Trump’s performance in Alabama over three presidential elections helps explain why even a weaker approval rating can still leave him in positive territory. He won the state with about 62% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020, and increased that share to nearly 65% in 2024, a margin of more than 30 points.
Mobile also holds a symbolic place in his political story. His August 2015 rally at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, which drew an estimated 30,000 people, was the first stadium-size event of his first presidential campaign. He returned to the same stadium in December 2016 to close his post-election “Thank You” tour. This year’s rally will be held indoors at the Mitchell Center, which holds about 10,000 people.
What a rally could mean for each side
Republicans say the visit will energize their voters and help turnout up and down the ballot, not only in Alabama but in the Florida Panhandle, which shares the Mobile media market. Some Alabama Republicans have voiced concern in recent weeks about apathy among GOP voters after low turnout in this summer’s special congressional primaries.
Some analysts say the visit could also give Democrats an opening to mobilize their own voters in the campaign’s closing weeks. Bullock described Jones’ invitation as “rather tongue-in-cheek” but said the strategy is understandable.
“It’s not unreasonable for him to want Trump to come to Alabama, have a rally and make some statements,” Bullock said. “It could remind voters, ‘this is why I don’t like this guy.'”
Whether the rally does more to fire up Republicans or motivate Democrats is likely to be debated right up to Election Day. What is clear from the polling is that Alabama remains one of the president’s strongest states, even as the numbers suggest some of the intensity behind that support has faded.
Key dates
- Friday, Oct. 2: Trump rally at the Mitchell Center, University of South Alabama, Mobile. Program at 6 p.m.
- Tuesday, Nov. 3: General election in Alabama.