Wednesday marked Census Day, the traditional benchmark for the once-a-decade population count, and Gov. Kay Ivey used the occasion to warn Alabamians that a low response could carry real financial and political consequences for the state. In a statement, Ivey said that if Alabama’s participation rate falls short of the 72 percent self-response rate the state posted in 2010, “the state would likely experience reduced representation in Congress, the loss of millions of dollars in Census-derived community funding, and reduced economic development opportunities.”
State officials and policymakers have been sounding similar warnings for nearly a year, but concern has intensified as the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to distract households from routine tasks like filling out a Census form — even though the state’s long-term economic recovery from the crisis may depend in part on an accurate count. “The COVID-19 pandemic shows the importance of state representation on a national level,” Ivey wrote. “If we lose a representative due to a low Census count, that would mean one less voice advocating for Alabama’s needs during critical times in the future.”
Kenneth Boswell, chairman and director of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs and head of the state’s Census effort, echoed that message. “Though the hearts and minds of Alabamians rests on the unprecedented health emergency we are currently battling, we must remember that our Census results are vital to our collective future,” he said. Boswell also noted that a strong early response now would reduce the need for the Census Bureau to send workers door-to-door once social-distancing restrictions eventually lift.
According to a report published last week by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama, the figures being tracked are what’s known as the self-response rate — the share of households that respond to the Census on their own, whether online, by phone or by mail, before any follow-up contact. That figure does not represent the total percentage of households eventually counted; households that don’t respond to the initial request receive additional mailings and, eventually, a visit from a Census worker.
As of March 31, roughly 39.4 percent of Alabama households had self-responded, a rate about 1 percentage point above the national average. Locally, the picture was mixed: Baldwin County’s response rate stood at 34 percent, below both the state and national averages, while Mobile County was close to the national norm at 38.6 percent.
The gap was even more pronounced at the municipal level. Satsuma, with a 2017 population of 6,154, posted the highest response rate among municipalities in the two counties at 49.6 percent. Orange Beach, with a similar population of 6,029, posted the lowest at just 10.2 percent. Other coastal communities lagged as well, with Dauphin Island at 12.7 percent and Gulf Shores at 21.3 percent.
Update, April 8: A week after Census Day, the state’s self-response rate has climbed to 44.9 percent as of April 5, according to the latest data — though that figure now sits just slightly below the national average rather than above it, a reminder of how quickly other states are also ramping up their own response campaigns. Baldwin County’s rate rose to 39.3 percent and Mobile County climbed to 43.7 percent, both improving from where they stood just five days earlier, but the two counties remain below the statewide pace.
The local leaderboard held largely steady even as the numbers rose across the board. Satsuma again posted the highest self-response rate among the two counties’ municipalities, climbing to 56.9 percent, while Orange Beach again posted the lowest, edging up only slightly to 12 percent. Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores also improved, to 17.6 percent and 25.1 percent respectively, though both remained well behind the county and state averages.
Dauphin Island Mayor Jeff Collier said he was caught off guard by his town’s low standing, given the effort local officials had put into promoting the count. He suggested the numbers may be skewed by the high share of non-resident property owners along the beach who wouldn’t be filling out a Census form for a home that isn’t their primary residence.
“We’ve talked about the Census in our monthly Town Crier and sent out mass emails about it, so we’ve been very proactive in our community, but whether or not that yields results, that’s a whole other thing,” Collier said, adding he planned to send another reminder email the same day. “I even went up to Montgomery when the governor had the Census kickoff campaign, and I feel good that the town has been very supportive and encouraging of the effort. I filled mine out and it only takes four or five minutes.”
Collier said he expects Dauphin Island’s official population to grow by 200 to 300 permanent residents in the 2020 count, pointing to what he described as a “tremendous surge in new homes” on the island in recent years. He noted the island’s dependence on accurate Census figures extends well beyond political representation, feeding directly into federal funding decisions for infrastructure projects such as road construction and beach nourishment.
Alabama residents can complete the 10-question Census online at my2020Census.gov, by phone at 1-844-330-2020, or by paper form, without any in-person contact with a Census worker. Officials stress that all individual responses are protected under federal law and cannot be shared with other agencies, including immigration enforcement or law enforcement generally.
Because of the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau has already announced adjustments to its original 2020 timeline, and Ivey’s office said it remains in close, daily contact with federal Census representatives monitoring the situation. Additional Alabama-specific Census resources are available through the state’s Alabama Counts! campaign at census.alabama.gov.
Self-response rates by city as of March 31:
Baldwin County — Bay Minette: 39.1 percent; Daphne: 43.6 percent; Elberta: 30.1 percent; Fairhope: 45.3 percent; Foley: 47.2 percent; Gulf Shores: 21.3 percent; Loxley: 40.2 percent; Magnolia Springs: 37.9 percent; Orange Beach: 10.2 percent; Perdido Beach: 37.3 percent; Robertsdale: 41 percent; Silverhill: 23.1 percent; Spanish Fort: 36.7 percent; Summerdale: 46 percent.
Mobile County — Bayou La Batre: 31.8 percent; Creola: 33.4 percent; Dauphin Island: 12.7 percent; Mobile: 41.3 percent; Mount Vernon: 29.9 percent; Saraland: 43.9 percent; Satsuma: 49.6 percent.
Updated self-response rates as of April 5 (where newer data was available):
Magnolia Springs: 42.3 percent (up from 37.9 percent); Perdido Beach: 40.6 percent (up from 37.3 percent); Spanish Fort: 42.7 percent (up from 36.7 percent); Bayou La Batre: 35.6 percent (up from 31.8 percent); Dauphin Island: 17.6 percent (up from 12.7 percent); Mount Vernon: 33.1 percent (up from 29.9 percent). Figures for other municipalities had not been updated in the most recent data release.