New NOAA-Backed Mobile Bay Flood Dashboard Shows How Rain, Rivers, Surge and Tides Combine to Threaten Coastal Communities

A new online tool developed by researchers working with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could help Mobile Bay communities better understand their flood risks and find ways to protect homes, roads and other infrastructure.

The interactive dashboard, announced Monday, Oct. 26, lets users explore how flooding could affect different areas around Mobile Bay under a range of storm and sea-level conditions.

Looking at floods the way they actually happen

Traditional flood models often study one cause of flooding at a time, such as storm surge from the Gulf or heavy rain. The new system is different. It considers how several forces can combine to produce more severe flooding:

• Heavy rainfall
• Rising rivers
• Storm surge
• Waves
• Tides

Scientists call this “compound flooding,” and it is especially important around Mobile Bay. The bay sits at the end of the Mobile-Tensaw river system, which drains a large part of Alabama and parts of Mississippi and Georgia. When a tropical storm pushes surge into the bay while heavy rain swells the rivers flowing in from the north, water can be trapped between the two, pushing flood levels higher than either source would on its own.

Built on past storms and future scenarios

Researchers studied historical storms, including Hurricanes Katrina and Sally, along with simulated flooding scenarios for 2020 and 2050.

Katrina, in 2005, pushed a powerful storm surge into Mobile Bay and flooded downtown Mobile, even though the storm made landfall well to the west. Sally, in 2020, stalled near the coast and dumped extreme rainfall on Baldwin County and the Pensacola area as it came ashore near Gulf Shores. Together, the two storms illustrate both surge-driven and rain-driven flooding.

Comparing scenarios for 2020 and 2050 allows the tool to show how rising sea levels could change flood risk over the coming decades.

Nature as protection

The dashboard also examines how natural features, including salt marshes and living shorelines, could reduce flooding.

Living shorelines use natural materials such as marsh plants, oyster reefs, sand and rock to stabilize a shoreline and absorb wave energy, as an alternative or complement to seawalls and bulkheads. Salt marshes can slow moving water and soak up wave energy before it reaches homes and roads.

One example in the dashboard compares potential flooding at Helen Wood Park, on Mobile Bay along Dauphin Island Parkway in south Mobile, under different conditions. It shows how water depths at the park could change between 2020 and 2050 with a living shoreline project in place.

Shaped by local decision-makers

Between 2023 and 2026, the research team worked with about 40 representatives of federal, state and local governments and nonprofit organizations. Those discussions helped the team identify areas vulnerable to flooding, evaluate existing and proposed protection projects and determine what information would be most useful to local decision-makers.

According to NOAA, the information could help local governments:

• Identify vulnerable neighborhoods
• Prioritize infrastructure investments
• Evaluate proposed flood protection projects

Who built it

The project is led by University of Alabama researcher Hamed Moftakhari, with support from NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology, known as CIROH. The University of Alabama hosts the dashboard, which will be updated as researchers publish additional findings and receive feedback from users.

A planning tool, not a warning system

NOAA stressed that the dashboard is a planning and research tool, not a real-time flood warning system. Residents should continue to rely on the National Weather Service, local emergency management agencies and official alerts for warnings about approaching storms and flooding.

Why it matters after Isaias

The dashboard arrives weeks after Hurricane Isaias brought wind, rain and flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast, reminding residents how quickly water can rise. For cities and counties around Mobile Bay weighing where to spend limited money on drainage, shoreline protection and road improvements, tools that show how flood risk could change over time can help guide long-term decisions.

Key facts

• What: Interactive Mobile Bay compound flood dashboard
• Announced: Monday, Oct. 26, 2026
• Led by: Hamed Moftakhari, University of Alabama
• Support: NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology
• Scenarios: Historical storms, including Katrina and Sally, plus simulations for 2020 and 2050
• Purpose: Planning and research; not a real-time warning system