Donald Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election has left south Alabama with a mix of street-level protest, cautious economic optimism and record voter participation, as residents across Mobile and Baldwin counties absorbed the results of one of the most unpredictable campaigns in modern history.
In downtown Mobile, dozens gathered in Cathedral Square over the weekend for a “Rally Against Trump(ism)” organized by the Alabama Green Party, joining a wave of demonstrations that stretched into a sixth day in cities and on college campuses nationwide. Most protests, including Mobile’s, remained peaceful, in contrast to unrest in Portland, Oregon, where property destruction and clashes with police caused roughly $1 million in damage and more than 100 arrests in a matter of days.
Tyler Henderson, chair of the Alabama Green Party, told the roughly 30 people gathered at the rally that the reasons behind Trump’s win were more complicated than a single narrative about bigotry. “A lot of people think Donald Trump came into power because he gave a racist, misogynistic, homophobic message, and that most people that voted for him hold those same ideas in their heart, and I’ll say, yes, some of them do, but most voted for Donald Trump because he brought an economic message to the people,” Henderson said, drawing a comparison to the populist appeal of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primary. Henderson placed some of the blame for the outcome on the Democratic Party’s own strategy and used the rally to encourage attendees to consider the Green Party as a political alternative in Alabama.
Henderson and other speakers also condemned reports of harassment and intimidation directed at minority communities following the election, calling on both Trump’s supporters and his critics to speak out against bigotry regardless of their politics. “We don’t just call on the allies of minority communities and the allies of LGBT communities and allies of women — we’re also calling on you that voted for Donald Trump to stand up for what you claim to believe in and condemn these people,” Henderson said.
While the political reaction played out on the streets, the financial and economic outlook for the region appeared, at least for the moment, more favorable than many analysts had predicted. Major Wall Street firms had warned before the election that a Trump victory would rattle markets and push investors toward safer bonds, but U.S. and European bond markets instead saw a sell-off in the days after the election, a signal that investors are betting on higher interest rates under the incoming administration.
Dr. Reid Cummings, director of the Center for Real Estate and Economic Development at the University of South Alabama, cautioned that Trump’s ultimate economic impact remains largely speculative until he takes office. Still, he noted that “in general, business tends to like smaller government and less regulation,” and said a Trump White House paired with Republican control of Congress could prove favorable for business overall.
For a port city like Mobile, one of the more closely watched questions is how an unpredictable approach to international trade might affect commerce. Jimmy Lyons, president of the Alabama State Port Authority, said his early concerns about Trump’s protectionist campaign rhetoric have eased somewhat as the president-elect has softened that tone since the election. “Anything that could spark a trade war — where we put a tariff on our stuff, and then another country puts a tariff on their stuff — could have an effect on imports and exports, and that was one of the only things that was a significant concern of mine from the standpoint of operating a port,” Lyons said. “But given some of the softening we’ve seen now that the campaign has ended, I don’t know that those concerns are as valid any longer.”
Environmental policy, on the other hand, appears headed for a sharper turn. Trump has tapped Myron Ebell, a prominent skeptic of mainstream climate science, to lead the transition at the Environmental Protection Agency, and has pledged to roll back Obama-era climate initiatives, including the Clean Power Plan limiting carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants. Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange was among the plan’s early critics, joining two dozen other state attorneys general in winning a U.S. Supreme Court stay against it. Strange has argued the rule “would shutter coal-fired power plants around the country, including in Alabama, while killing jobs and raising power bills for hard-working families.”
That same shift is causing concern among Gulf Coast environmental advocates who have historically worked with officials from both parties. Kara Lankford, interim director of Gulf restoration for the Ocean Conservancy, said her organization is watching the EPA transition closely given the stakes for coastal restoration work already underway in the region. Locally, Mobile Baykeeper executive director Casi Callaway said the health of Mobile Bay is central to the area’s “jobs, economy, community, health and recreation,” and that local environmental groups are prepared to shoulder a bigger share of the work if federal support recedes under the new administration. “If over the next four years environmental protection is no longer a priority, Mobile Baykeeper will just have a bigger job to do,” Callaway said.
On Capitol Hill, Alabama’s overwhelming support for Trump at the ballot box could translate into real influence for the state’s federal delegation. U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions of Mobile, one of the earliest senators to back Trump’s campaign, has been mentioned for a range of cabinet posts, including attorney general, secretary of defense or secretary of homeland security. U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, R-Montrose, said Sessions would excel in any of those roles. “I’ve known Jeff Sessions for 40 years,” Byrne said. “He has a high level of integrity … he’s well respected. He’ll be a tremendous asset to the Trump administration.” Byrne added that a Sessions cabinet appointment would likely benefit the Mobile area’s standing with the federal government.
With Republicans retaining control of both chambers of Congress, Byrne said Alabama’s other members could also see expanded influence, including Sen. Richard Shelby maintaining his seniority, U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt potentially gaining more sway on the House Appropriations Committee, and U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers possibly moving up from his role as a subcommittee leader on the House Armed Services Committee.
Byrne said that clout could pay dividends on issues directly affecting south Alabama. He expects progress to continue on the long-planned Interstate 10 bridge over the Mobile River, with design work potentially wrapping up by the end of next year and construction beginning as early as 2018, funded in part through Trump’s proposed $1 trillion infrastructure plan along with possible tolling or Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act revenue. He also pointed to the U.S. Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship program as a likely beneficiary of a Trump administration, given the president-elect’s call to grow the Navy fleet from 276 to 350 ships — a build-out that would sustain the program’s 52 planned vessels, 26 of which are slated for construction at Austal USA in Mobile. Byrne said he also expects a Trump administration to push for a longer red snapper season by pressing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Marine Fisheries Service to ease current restrictions, and said he intends to work with the incoming administration on border security and repealing the Affordable Care Act.
South of Mobile, Baldwin County saw its own historic moment on Election Day, setting an all-time record for turnout even though the percentage of registered voters who cast ballots fell short of some predictions. Roughly 95,000 people voted countywide, with long lines stretching outside polling places and around buildings for much of the day. Trump carried the county with about 77 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 19 percent, with only two precincts — the Vaughn Community Center near Stockton and the Douglasville Boykin Center in Bay Minette — favoring Clinton.
Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell said he had expected turnout as high as 80 percent based on early activity at the polls, but the final figure came in closer to 65 percent. “The trend dropped way off later in the day, which told me that the younger voters didn’t come out after work like we thought they would,” Russell said, adding that lingering rain in south Baldwin County and long lines may have discouraged some would-be voters. Even so, the raw number of ballots cast set a new bar for the county. “That’s the biggest turnout that we’ve ever had in the history of the county by far,” Russell said, noting that just 69,000 voters had turned out four years earlier. He said the county’s growing population and rising turnout mean he will need additional funding to administer future high-profile elections, including the next major statewide contest in June 2018, when voters will decide races for governor, the Legislature and county offices.
Baldwin was also among 14 Alabama counties that piloted a new system for verifying voter identification at two precincts, Bay Minette and White House Fork, where voters had their driver’s licenses scanned and signed in electronically rather than being checked manually against a printed poll book. Russell said the process moved faster than the traditional method and noted that about 95 percent of Baldwin County voters carry a driver’s license. Even with the streamlined check-in at those precincts, nearly 5,000 absentee ballots took county workers until 1 a.m. to finish counting.