MOBILE, Ala. — A textbook August pattern holds across the Gulf Coast this week: hot, humid, and prone to scattered thunderstorms that fire in the afternoon and fade after sunset. Storm coverage should thin out by midweek — but only because the heat is taking over.
With students across the region heading back to class, families will want to plan around two different problems on the same day: a wet morning bus ride and a dangerously hot afternoon pickup line.
Tonight: Evening Storms Gradually Fade
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of the area early this evening before weakening and becoming less widespread after sunset. A few stronger cells could briefly produce heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds.
Most communities turn quiet overnight under partly cloudy skies and muggy conditions. Lows generally settle into the mid 70s inland and upper 70s near the coast.
Monday: Back to School With Scattered Storms
Several districts across the Gulf Coast return to class Monday. The morning bus ride will be warm and muggy with temperatures mainly in the 70s, and a few showers may develop near the coast during the morning — enough that some students could catch a brief shower on the way in.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible as the day goes on, with activity drifting inland through the afternoon.
Many locations will stay dry or see stretches of sunshine between storms. Where thunderstorms do develop, expect brief downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds, which means some afternoon pickup lines, bus routes and after-school activities could be interrupted.
Afternoon highs generally reach the lower 90s, with heat index values climbing into the 100 to 107 degree range.
Tuesday Into Wednesday: Fewer Storms
Storm coverage should gradually decrease Tuesday and especially Wednesday — good news for additional districts starting classes around midweek, with more sunshine and fewer thunderstorms expected Wednesday.
An isolated afternoon thunderstorm remains possible, but most communities should stay dry for longer stretches. Temperatures hold in the lower to middle 90s, with muggy overnight lows in the 70s.
Heat index values continue reaching the lower to middle 100s. For students at afternoon practices, recess and other outdoor activities, the heat becomes the more meaningful concern once the rain backs off — rain at least provides some cooling; a clear afternoon does not.
Late Week: Hotter Weather Builds
More sunshine and fewer thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Saturday. With less rain around to break the heat, afternoon temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s inland, while coastal communities stay slightly cooler thanks to the water.
The combination of heat and humidity could push heat index values into the 105 to 110 degree range late in the week and into next weekend.
Beach Forecast: Lower Rip Current Risk
Beach conditions should remain relatively manageable through the middle of the week, with a low risk of rip currents expected through Wednesday.
Even with generally calm surf, thunderstorms can create dangerous conditions near the water in a matter of minutes. If you hear thunder, leave the beach and move indoors.
Tropics: Activity Well East of Home
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several areas across the Atlantic, including tropical waves and areas of low pressure well east of the United States.
Some gradual tropical development is possible over the open Atlantic later this week, but there is no immediate tropical threat to the Gulf Coast or the contiguous United States over the next several days.