Baldwin County school officials are eyeing next year’s Republican presidential primary as their next chance to win back millage renewals that Baldwin County voters soundly rejected earlier this year, even as political observers warn that a heavily conservative primary electorate could work against them.
Voters shot down the Baldwin County School Board’s property tax renewals in a March 31 special election, defeating the measures in all but one precinct across the county. At least 4 of those mills could now be headed back to voters on the March 2016 primary ballot, as the school system in Alabama’s fastest-growing county tries to avoid losing more than $7 million in annual revenue.
Political strategist and Baldwin County resident Jonathan Gray warned that a presidential primary, which historically draws hardline conservative and anti-tax voters to the polls, might not be the friendliest environment for a renewal campaign. He predicted that anti-tax sentiment, often reinforced from the pulpit in the lead-up to Republican primaries, will again dominate local political conversation in the months before the vote.
At the same time, supporters of the renewals may benefit from other high-profile local races drawing attention away from the tax question. The Baldwin County District Attorney’s race has already turned contentious, with retired judge Robert Wilters challenging incumbent Hallie Dixon over her leadership record. School board member David Cox said that combined with a crowded presidential primary field, voter attention could genuinely be split across many competing storylines this cycle.
Sam Fisher, an associate political science professor at the University of South Alabama, cautioned that a presidential primary could cut the opposite way too, potentially drawing more conservative voters to the polls specifically because of the national race, which could hurt the renewal’s chances. School system spokesman Terry Wilhite pushed back on that concern, noting that Baldwin County voters have historically approved school sales tax renewals even during past presidential election cycles.
Unlike the March special election, which included proposals for 8 new mills tied to a $350 million building expansion plan, the 2016 ballot questions are expected to be renewals only, without new tax increases. The earlier proposals were defeated by wider margins than the renewal questions, which political observers noted were much closer contests.
School board members and local tea party leaders agree that public trust, not just ballot timing, will determine whether the renewals succeed. Board members Cecil Christenberry and Angie Swiger both pointed to plans for more transparency measures, including live-streamed board meetings and off-site sessions held around the county, similar to practices used by the Mobile City Council. A newly forming community task force, made up of at least 20 members nominated by area mayors, is expected to begin meeting later this month to gather public input ahead of the vote.
Not everyone is convinced the process will be seen as fair. Lou Campomenosi, head of the Common Sense Campaign tea party organization in Baldwin County, questioned whether a task force selected partly by mayors who publicly backed the defeated March tax proposals can be viewed as truly nonpartisan. Task force organizers say the goal is a broad, nonpartisan group focused on rebuilding public confidence in the school system’s spending and decision-making ahead of the March 2016 vote.