Forecasters Say Mid-to-Late August Marks Shift Into Active Stretch of Hurricane Season

SOUTH ALABAMA — August marks a dramatic turning point in the Atlantic hurricane season, according to Chief Meteorologist Jason Smith. After relatively quiet months in June and July, activity tends to increase sharply as the calendar moves through mid-August, with areas that saw little tropical development early in the summer suddenly becoming hotspots. Smith said several atmospheric factors are aligning to make conditions more favorable for tropical systems. Atlantic water temperatures remain warm after a long, hot summer. Saharan dust, which has suppressed development earlier in the season, is expected to diminish significantly by late next week.

Wind shear, which can tear apart forming storms, remains relatively high in the central Atlantic through the end of the week but is expected to decrease — a combination that could mean increased tropical activity into September. Forecasters are tracking three areas of concern in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The most closely watched is a system tracking toward the Caribbean, though it may encounter a tougher environment once it arrives there. Two additional systems carry lower probabilities of development.

Despite forecasts for a below-average Atlantic season overall, Smith cautioned that it only takes one storm to cause significant problems, making continued monitoring essential as the season enters its most active stretch.

The Season’s Peak

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but activity is heavily concentrated in its middle months. According to the National Hurricane Center, the season’s climatological peak falls around Sept. 10, and the large majority of hurricanes form from mid-August through mid-October, when ocean temperatures are highest and African easterly waves moving off the continent provide the seeds for many storms.