The Republican hunt for a nominee in the special election for Baldwin County’s District 32 state Senate seat began some seven weeks earlier with five mostly gung-ho candidates. It would straggle to the finish Tuesday a little worse for the wear — but with a nominee.
Who that would be was anybody’s guess. Early favorite Randy McKinney, a south Baldwin real estate executive, state school board member and the choice of Gov. Bob Riley? Or Trip Pittman, the Eastern Shore businessman and first-time candidate who bypassed the establishment for a grass-roots appeal?
The winner would face Democratic nominee A.J. Cooper, an Eastern Shore attorney who took his party’s nomination unopposed, in the Oct. 16 general election. The seat opened when Bradley Byrne resigned to lead the state’s troubled two-year college system.
Political observers across Baldwin County — elected officials, party veterans, business figures and consultants, most speaking on condition of anonymity — offered their reads on the race.
The case for Pittman
“Trip Pittman will win the election on Tuesday,” said one Baldwin County elected official. “McKinney’s move to go negative in his mail pieces and his need to bring in the ‘big guns’ (a.k.a. Gov. Riley) for televised endorsements shows the acts of a candidate who is trailing in the last few days before the election.”
A tourism executive predicted a 51-49 Pittman win on geography: “McKinney hasn’t done much north of Robertsdale.” But he warned that Pittman’s own closing message — hammering Montgomery PAC money — would not help him govern afterward.
A Baldwin attorney forecast “low voter turnout and a razor thin margin,” adding that “Riley’s endorsement of McKinney proves to be a net negative, and Pittman wins by a nose.” A road contractor was blunter, putting Pittman at 54 percent and arguing that McKinney had raised less than $30,000 from individual Baldwin County donors across two cycles. “The governor’s endorsement I believe has backfired,” he said.
The case for McKinney
A veteran Baldwin politico laid out the most detailed map of the county. He predicted McKinney would win 53-47 in a turnout of perhaps 12 percent, carrying Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido, Lillian, Elberta, Foley, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Loxley, Magnolia Springs and Bon Secour by margins large enough to offset Pittman’s expected strength in Barnwell, Marlow, Bay Minette, Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope.
“Randy is a seasoned campaigner and has a good organization in place,” he said. “In the end I think an experienced organization and good name identification will beat an inexperienced candidate and organization.”
A Baldwin native and financial consultant agreed McKinney would hold on, though the late negative turn told him “his polls show it is real close.” A veteran GOP spokesperson said much the same while criticizing the governor’s involvement: “I do not like the fact that Gov. Riley got involved in a primary race. I do not think this is good for the party in the long run.”
The property tax undercurrent
Running beneath the campaign was Baldwin County’s property reappraisal controversy — annual valuations that had driven up tax bills in a county where coastal land values were climbing fast, and which some residents blamed on Riley.
One real estate executive who picked McKinney to win by 5 percent, or about 7,000 votes, argued the governor was being wrongly blamed. “What Realtors despise the most is anything that affects property rights and ownership,” he said. “This miscarriage of justice caused by this screwed-up legislation is an abomination and possibly will force some out of their homes. However, I do not feel the governor should be tagged with (it).” He pointed the finger instead at the Legislature.
An ex-south Baldwin official summarized the closing dynamic in a sentence: “I predict Pittman will win 51-49 percent. The PAC money and negative campaigning at the end has made the difference.”
The one thing on which nearly everyone agreed was that turnout would be low and the outcome would hinge on which side’s voters bothered to show up on a Tuesday in September.