Figures vs. Marques: Turnout, Money and Polls in Alabama’s 2nd District Showdown

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — With three weeks left before the Nov. 3 general election, the Alabama 2nd District congressional race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures and Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques has become one of the most closely watched House contests in the South, and analysts say the outcome may hinge on a single factor: who turns out to vote.

Political observers generally agree on the shape of the race. Marques is considered the favorite in a district that was redrawn earlier this year to favor Republicans, but Figures, a first-term incumbent with a fundraising edge, is seen as having a real chance to hold the seat.

A district remade by the courts

The 2nd District, which includes Montgomery, Dothan and much of the Wiregrass, was reshaped by years of redistricting litigation, a U.S. Supreme Court ruling and a special legislative session that redrew the lines earlier this year. The changes created confusion during the spring primary season and dramatically altered the district’s political makeup.

The version of the district that elected Figures in 2024 was drawn as a Black-opportunity district. The new district is whiter and more rural, and President Donald Trump carried the area by roughly 14 percentage points in 2024. The redrawn district’s voting-age population is 53.3% white, 38.8% Black and about 8% other races.

Mobile County, Figures’ home and political base, is no longer part of the district.

“Overall, it might be a negative given that the new district does not include Mobile and Figures lives here,” said Joseph Aistrup, a political science professor at Auburn University.

Turnout is the key

Racially polarized voting remains a defining feature of Alabama politics, and analysts say it could be decisive in the 2nd District.

“It is a huge imperative for Figures to get Black voters to turnout in very high numbers in all parts of the 2nd,” Aistrup said. “Without their enthusiastic support and very high turnout, Figures is not likely to win.”

For Democrats, Montgomery County is central. It is the district’s largest population center and has its largest concentration of Black voters. Turnout there was notably strong in the May 19 primary: while statewide turnout was 23.11%, Montgomery County posted a 35.4% rate, the highest among Alabama’s largest population centers.

“It’s the base of that district,” said state Sen. Bobby Singleton, chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party. “It’s where we’ll focus a lot of attention. Montgomery will be a priority.”

Democrats are also counting on support in smaller cities such as Tuskegee, Union Springs, Hayneville and Phenix City. Figures has stressed Montgomery’s importance in remarks to the Alabama Democratic Conference while also acknowledging the challenge he faces in the Wiregrass.

Republicans bank on the Wiregrass

Republicans are relying on the deep-red Wiregrass, including Houston, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry and Crenshaw counties. Houston County, home to Dothan and the region’s largest population center, gave Trump nearly three-fourths of its vote in 2024.

Marques, a state lawmaker from Enterprise who won the Republican nomination in August, has made Trump central to his campaign. He appeared on stage at Trump’s Oct. 2 rally in Mobile, where several speakers urged Republicans to turn out for GOP candidates and singled out the 2nd District race. Read our coverage of Marques at the rally.

At that rally, Marques accused Figures of representing “craziness over common sense,” a phrase Republicans have increasingly used against Democratic candidates. Figures has criticized what he called Marques’ “Trump-drunk state of praise and worship” of the president and has attacked Marques over tariffs and higher consumer costs that Figures attributes to Trump administration policies. Read Figures’ response after the rally.

Republican leaders have signaled they are taking nothing for granted. At a recent Republican gathering in Mobile, GOP secretary of state nominee Caroleene Dobson described the race as close and urged supporters to back Marques. Alabama Republican Party Chairman Scott Stadthagen has also warned that Republicans cannot flip the district without strong turnout. Read more about Stadthagen’s turnout warning.

Marques also has the backing of U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, an Enterprise native who was among his earliest major endorsers. The Wiregrass has a history of rallying behind hometown candidates; in the 2024 Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District, then-U.S. Rep. Barry Moore defeated then-U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl in an incumbent-versus-incumbent race, powered by overwhelming support across the Wiregrass.

Endorsements

• Marques: Republican elected leaders and business and agriculture groups including the Alabama Farmers Federation (ALFA), the National Federation of Independent Business, the Alabama Forestry Association, the Home Builders Association of Alabama and Manufacture Alabama.
• Figures: Democratic-aligned organizations including the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund and the League of Conservation Voters.

The history of racial voting

Jess Brown, a longtime political observer and retired political science professor at Athens State University, said racial polarization remains the most important factor in the race.

“While economic interests are a major factor in general election voting, I believe it will have a difficult time overcoming race,” Brown said. “The cultural divisions of Black and white trump the cultural divisions of green and white in Wiregrass Alabama.”

Brown compared the new district to the one represented for nearly three decades by the late Republican U.S. Rep. William Dickinson of Montgomery, who served from 1965 to 1993. Dickinson survived difficult political climates, including the Democratic wave election of 1974 that followed the Watergate scandal, with repeated support from white voters.

“The old Dickinson district was sometimes competitive, but he always won largely due to the racial polarization in voting,” Brown said.

Money: a close race with a cash gap

Campaign finance reports underscore how competitive the contest is.

• Total raised: Figures, just under $1.4 million; Marques, slightly more than $1.3 million.
• Cash on hand at the end of July: Figures, $662,600; Marques, $187,718.
• Marques’ sources: roughly $1.13 million from individual donors and more than $188,000 from political action committees, including support tied to Alabama First PAC, which is led by Britt.
• Figures’ sources: more than $490,000 from individual donors and roughly $830,000 from PACs. His largest contributors include the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the political action league of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers, and the American Association for Justice PAC.

Updated Federal Election Commission reports are expected next week. Campaigns file quarterly reports with the FEC, along with pre-general reports shortly before Election Day, and the filings are available to the public on the FEC’s website, fec.gov.

What the polls and forecasters say

As in most Alabama contests, public polling has been scarce. An average of the few public polls shows Marques with about a 4-point advantage. The most recent public poll, released last month by House Majority PAC, a Democratic group, and conducted by Tulchin Research, found Figures and Marques tied at 47% each. Polls sponsored by partisan groups should be read with caution, since they are sometimes released strategically. An earlier summer poll by a Democratic organization had the race tied at 46%. Read our earlier look at the forecasts.

Nonpartisan election handicappers offer perhaps the best guide. In June, one forecaster labeled the district “solid” Republican immediately after the Supreme Court ruling that upheld the Alabama GOP’s congressional map, then moved it to “likely” Republican later that month, where it has stayed. The University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the district “lean” Republican, one step away from a 50-50 toss-up.

Alabama’s 2nd is the only congressional district in the South redrawn to benefit Republicans after the Supreme Court ruling that is considered at risk of staying Democratic. Two other districts redrawn after the decision, Louisiana’s 6th and Tennessee’s 9th, are viewed as safe Republican pickups.

National stakes

The race could matter far beyond Alabama. Republicans hold a narrow House majority, and Democrats have more pickup opportunities nationwide, giving them a path back to control if the political environment keeps moving in their direction.

Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst with the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Republicans are “very likely” to gain the redrawn districts in Louisiana and Tennessee, but that “Democrats have a fighting chance to holding AL-2.”

“How many double-digit 2024 Trump seats Democrats will win will determine how close they can get to matching or even exceeding 235,” Kondik said. “AL-2 is one of those seats to watch in that regard.”

Scott Huffman, a political science professor at Winthrop University and director of its Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research, said Southern districts reshaped after recent court rulings could carry long-term implications for the Republican Party.

“If the Democrats take control of the House, especially by picking up seats elsewhere around the country, the southern Republicans are likely to be the biggest bloc of the party and will be dominant in shaping who and what the party becomes in the House,” Huffman said.

He cautioned against overstating the role of redistricting alone. “If Republicans somehow keep control of the House, it will be because the wave didn’t materialize as expected and/or a host of other factors,” he said. “New red seats in the South would only be one of those factors.”

The final stretch

Aistrup said Figures enters the final weeks with important advantages, including incumbency, name recognition, a strong fundraising base and the possibility of a national environment that favors Democrats.

Brown is less convinced that Alabama will follow national trends. “Iowa ain’t Alabama,” he said. “The difference between the histories and political cultures of those states are less than used to be, but they remain substantial.”

“The GOP and its nominees have a huge war chest and still time to close some of the enthusiasm gap between themselves and the Democrats,” Brown said. “Do not underestimate the capacity of the GOP and its consultants to use fear of Democrats as an instrument to invigorate some additional turnout among the MAGA base. They have done so repeatedly in prior contests and with success.”

He added: “Just ask Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton. Remember their poll numbers?”

The two candidates have also sparred over debates. Figures has accepted three debate invitations, while Marques has said he will not debate. Read more about the debate dispute.

What voters need to know

• Election Day: Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls in Alabama are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
• Registration deadline: Monday, Oct. 19.
• Check your district and polling place: Because the district lines changed this year, voters can confirm which congressional district they live in and where they vote through the Alabama Secretary of State’s website, sos.alabama.gov, or their county board of registrars.
• Photo ID: Alabama requires voters to show an approved photo ID at the polls. Free voter ID cards are available to registered voters who lack one.