Luther Strange lost his race for lieutenant governor in 2006, and in the ordinary course of Alabama politics that would have been the end of the story. It was not. In the spring of 2008, the Birmingham attorney was still regarded as a rising figure in the state Republican firmament — and he had begun reminding people of it.
Had Strange defeated Jim Folsom two years earlier, he would have been the obvious front-runner to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Bob Riley. Instead he lost, and a Plan B became necessary. The assumption among many in the party was that Strange had his eye on a run for attorney general in 2010, notwithstanding the likely re-election bid of Republican incumbent Troy King, who had irritated party regulars from time to time on various issues during his stint as AG.
The email
An email Strange sent to supporters suggested his ambitions ran higher than the attorney general’s office.
“Friends,” it began. “I thought you might be interested in the results of a recent poll of hypothetical match-ups between Democratic Congressman Artur Davis of Birmingham and potential Republican candidates in the 2010 governor’s race. The poll was commissioned by Congressman Davis and the results were reported by the Tuscaloosa News.”
The numbers, as Strange described them, were flattering. “The poll showed that I was tied with Congressman Davis at 43% and leading or in the margin of error when compared with the other Republican candidates frequently mentioned, all of whom are currently holding public office,” he wrote.
Then came the framing that mattered: “As a political outsider, I am particularly gratified to be considered one of the leading contenders for the governor’s mansion in 2010. That tells me that our positive message of leadership with integrity still resonates with the people of Alabama.”
Strange closed by noting that his economic development work and speaking schedule continued to take him across the state, and invited recipients to visit his website or contact him directly.
Reading between the lines
Circulating a poll commissioned by one’s prospective opponent is a recognized maneuver in politics. The numbers arrive with a certain credibility precisely because the other side paid for them, and the candidate who forwards them gets to present himself as a contender without formally announcing anything.
The email said, in effect, three things at once: that Strange was still in the game, that he intended to be considered for the top of the ticket rather than a consolation prize, and that the poll of a Democratic congressman’s own making had confirmed it.
What was actually coming
The 2010 landscape Strange was surveying in April 2008 looked different from the one that eventually materialized. Artur Davis, the Harvard-educated congressman from Birmingham, was widely expected to seek the Democratic nomination for governor and to make history in doing so. Bob Riley was term-limited. The Republican field was unformed, and no obvious heir apparent had emerged.
For readers along the Gulf Coast, the exercise mattered because Mobile and Baldwin counties had become an increasingly important source of Republican primary votes, and any candidate serious about a statewide run in 2010 would have to spend time in south Alabama — which is precisely what Strange said his speaking schedule was already doing.
Whether the destination turned out to be the governor’s office or the attorney general’s, the message his supporters were meant to take from the email was that they had not heard the last of him.