If the statewide results of Alabama’s June 1 primaries surprised the political class, the local returns in Mobile and Baldwin counties rearranged it. An incumbent district attorney missed her own runoff. A former circuit judge was routed by a two-to-one margin. And a first-time candidate for prosecutor won by a landslide that observers struggled to explain by her own strengths alone.
Rich over Erwin, decisively
In the Republican primary for Mobile County district attorney, Ashley Rich defeated Mark Erwin, the county attorney and chairman of the local party, by roughly 70 percent to 30 percent.
“Obviously, Ashley Rich is a big winner,” said an attorney identified as BZK. “Seventy-thirty over the GOP chairman is impressive no matter what other factors were at play.”
Nearly every observer traced Erwin’s collapse to a single association: former County Commissioner Stephen Nodine, then facing a murder charge in Baldwin County. Erwin had been reported to have gone to Nodine’s home and removed firearms in the immediate aftermath of the shooting death of Angel Downs.
“The decision to go to Nodine’s house ‘the morning after’ was his undoing in this race,” said a lawyer writing as CTR, who added that he had expected Erwin to lose but not by that margin.
Several respondents were careful to note that Erwin had not been accused of a crime and was, in the estimation of many who knew him, well qualified for the office. “Mark Erwin would have made a fine District Attorney,” said a Republican official. “The sudden change in his political fortunes will be talked about for a long time.”
Rich advanced to face Democrat Don Foster in November.
Figures turns back Thomas
In the Democratic primary for state Senate District 33, Sen. Vivian Figures defeated former Circuit Judge Herman Thomas, taking roughly two-thirds of the vote.
Thomas had resigned from the bench before facing the Court of the Judiciary and was later acquitted of criminal charges arising from allegations that he paddled inmates. Panelists read the result as voters delivering a verdict that the courts had not.
“I think justice is a big winner,” said an executive identified as SDC. “With clever legal maneuvering, Thomas ducked the legal system. He could not duck the voters.”
Baldwin County: an incumbent left out
The night’s sharpest local shock came in Baldwin County, where District Attorney Judy Newcomb finished third and failed to reach the runoff. Hallie Dixon, her former chief assistant, led the field, followed by David Green.
“For an incumbent DA to draw a crowded field of competitors is a bad sign,” said CTR. “For her to fail to make the run-off speaks volumes.”
Observers differed on what the runoff would look like. Because of the well-known animosity between the Dixon and Newcomb camps, several predicted that Newcomb’s voters would migrate to Green rather than to Dixon.
County commission shakeups
In Baldwin County Commission races, newcomer Tucker Dorsey denied incumbent Wayne Gruenloh an outright win and forced a runoff, and Bob James pushed longtime Commissioner David Ed Bishop to a July 13 runoff as well.
“Dorsey simply out worked Gruenloh in the primary election,” said a Republican official identified as NMH.
Several respondents linked the anti-incumbent mood to a trade trip to China that Baldwin commissioners had taken as oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster approached the coast. “Losers: Commissioners Gruenloh, Bishop and Gruber for jetting to China on a junket while biggest disaster to the coastal environment and economy comes ashore,” said a manager writing as PRP.
An environmental footnote
One environmentally minded respondent flagged a result that drew little notice: Chip Brown, who had taken up the cause of regulating private sewer systems in Baldwin County, lost his bid for the Republican nomination for Public Service Commission. Whether the commission would remain receptive to Baldwin residents’ concerns about private sewer regulation was, the respondent wrote, an open question.
The through line
Asked to name the biggest loser of the night, one former legislator declined to name a candidate at all. “The biggest loser was the electorate,” he said. “With so much emphasis on negative advertising — and ‘sensational’ reporting in the media — it’s practically impossible for the voters to get a true understanding of an individual candidate’s qualifications.”