MOBILE, Ala. — September 2026 will go down as one of the hottest Septembers on record in Mobile, and a strangely quiet one in the tropics. Mobile’s September climate summary shows the city’s average high temperature ranked eighth warmest for the month in records dating back to 1872, while rainfall fell about 2 inches short of normal and drought tightened its grip on interior parts of the region.
Pensacola ran warm as well, but heavier rains along the western Florida Panhandle left that city with a small rainfall surplus. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin closed out what is normally the peak month of hurricane season without producing a single hurricane, a first in the satellite era.
Mobile: a top-10 warm September
Mobile ran above normal in all three main temperature measures last month: average highs, average lows and the overall monthly mean. Highs were below normal on only two days of the month, and the rest of the month’s numbers were at or well above normal.
Here is how the month stacked up at Mobile, compared with the 1991-2020 climate normals:
- Average high: 91.1 degrees, 3.6 degrees above normal, ranking as the eighth warmest September on record.
- Average low: 71.0 degrees, 2.2 degrees above normal.
- Average temperature: 81.1 degrees, 3.0 degrees above normal.
- Hottest day: 95 degrees on Sept. 19, 8 degrees above normal for the date.
- Coolest morning: 62 degrees on Sept. 29, 3 degrees below normal for the date.
Overnight lows held in the mid-70s and stayed about 3.5 degrees above normal through Sept. 16 before temperatures began to vary more around the seasonal averages. It took until the final days of the month for anything resembling fall weather to arrive. Despite the persistent warmth, no daily temperature records were set at Mobile.
Mobile rainfall falls short
Mobile’s rain gauge collected just 3.28 inches in September, 2.02 inches below normal. The dry month pushed the city’s rainfall deficit for the year to 4.22 inches below normal to date.
For perspective, Mobile’s all-time September records show how much the month can vary. The wettest September on record brought 24.13 inches of rain in 1998, including 8.60 inches on Sept. 28 of that year, the most ever recorded on a single September day. The driest September, in 1923, produced only 0.47 inches. Mobile’s hottest September temperature on record is 103 degrees, set on Sept. 5, 1925, and the coldest is 42 degrees, recorded on Sept. 29, 1967.
Pensacola: warm, with a rainfall surplus
Pensacola was also warmer than normal, though its highs stayed closer to average than Mobile’s. Compared with the 1991-2020 normals, Pensacola recorded:
- Average high: 89.4 degrees, 0.9 degree above normal.
- Average low: 73.3 degrees, 1.8 degrees above normal.
- Average temperature: 81.4 degrees, 1.4 degrees above normal.
- Hottest day: 95 degrees on Sept. 15, 6 degrees above normal for the date.
- Coolest mornings: 64 degrees on both Sept. 26 and Sept. 28, 5 degrees below normal for those dates.
Pensacola’s lows ran about 2.6 degrees above normal through Sept. 24, then cooled to average 1.7 degrees below normal over the final days of the month. As in Mobile, no daily temperature records fell.
Rainfall told a different story. Pensacola picked up 6.78 inches, nearly twice Mobile’s total and 0.17 inch above normal. That surplus did little to dent the city’s yearly shortfall, however. Pensacola’s 46.26 inches of rain so far this year leaves it 7.53 inches below normal to date, about the same deficit it carried a month earlier.
Pensacola’s September records include a high of 102 degrees, reached on Sept. 5, 1925, and again on Sept. 18, 2019, and a low of 43 degrees on Sept. 29, 1967. Its wettest single September day brought 11.85 inches on Sept. 16, 2020, the day Hurricane Sally came ashore. The wettest September overall produced 19.71 inches in 1998, while the driest, in 2019, recorded only a trace of rain.
Where the rain fell, and where drought grew
Rainfall across the region was uneven. Pockets of better rain fell from parts of southeast Mississippi into the interior of southwest Alabama, but the heaviest totals were concentrated over the western Florida Panhandle, especially from Pensacola to Milton to Navarre Beach. That area received roughly 6 to 10 inches during the month, 1 to 4 inches above normal.
Elsewhere, conditions grew drier. The region entered September with moderate to severe drought established over interior areas north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Over the course of the month, the drought worsened and expanded eastward across the Interstate 65 corridor.
Dry conditions can raise wildfire risk, stress lawns, gardens and crops, and lower water levels in ponds and streams. Residents in drought-affected areas should use caution with any outdoor burning and follow any burn restrictions issued by local or state officials.
A historic hurricane drought
September is typically the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, but September 2026 was the opposite. Only three tropical storms formed during the month, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna, all in the second half of September. None strengthened into a hurricane.
As a result, 2026 has become the first year since the start of the weather satellite era in 1960 in which no hurricane has formed by this point in the season.
Forecasters point to a strong El Niño as the main reason. El Niño, a periodic warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific, has increased vertical wind shear over the Atlantic basin. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with height, and it tends to tear apart tropical waves before they can organize into stronger storms. During the current era of generally high hurricane activity, El Niño years are usually associated with near-normal to below-normal seasons, and every hurricane season since 1950 that coincided with a strong El Niño has produced below-normal activity.
Other, less influential factors included near-average ocean temperatures across the Atlantic and a neutral West African monsoon, which affects the tropical waves that often grow into Atlantic storms.
October outlook: warmer, and likely wetter
Looking ahead, October temperatures are favored to lean above normal across the Deep South. Although October is usually one of the drier months of the year on the Gulf Coast, outlooks give the region about a 60% chance of a wetter-than-normal October this year.
That would be welcome news for drought-stricken areas. There are indications that the drought could ease or end entirely across the Deep South by the end of December.
Don’t let the quiet season fool you
Forecasters stress that the season is not over. Although the climatological peak of hurricane season has passed, October brings its own spike in tropical cyclone activity, with storms typically forming close to home in the northwest Caribbean, the Gulf and off the southeastern U.S. coast. Those storms can develop quickly and leave less time to prepare.
The Gulf Coast has seen that happen before. Hurricane Opal struck near Pensacola Beach in October 1995, and Hurricane Zeta swept through coastal Alabama in late October 2020. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Residents should keep hurricane kits stocked, review evacuation plans and insurance coverage, and follow the National Weather Service in Mobile and the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts. As forecasters put it, October can certainly still produce hurricanes, and some could form closer to home. Stay vigilant and ready.