MOBILE, Ala. — The pleasant weekend weather that forecasters promised for the Gulf Coast has arrived, and the latest outlook makes it even better: an extra push of dry air Monday should stretch the comfortable conditions into early next week before moisture and rain chances return midweek.
After a long run of heat and humidity, drier air moved into south Alabama on Friday, setting up clear skies, cool mornings and warm, low-humidity afternoons for Saturday, Sept. 26, and Sunday, Sept. 27, across Mobile and Baldwin counties.
Latest Forecast: Dry Weather Now Lasts Into Tuesday
The updated forecast issued Friday extends the dry stretch. Earlier outlooks had moisture creeping back as soon as Monday; now, a fresh shot of drier air is expected to pivot into the area Monday, keeping conditions very pleasant, and the dry pattern should hold through Tuesday.
Rain chances return midweek. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wednesday, with better chances of rain Thursday and Friday.
Saturday: Cool Start, Pleasant Afternoon
Friday night brought clear skies and comfortable temperatures, with lows near 60 degrees in inland areas and around 65 degrees closer to the coast. That means a cool start Saturday morning with the dry air still firmly in place.
Highs Saturday will reach the upper 80s with no chance of rain, ideal for outdoor activities, farmers markets, football and weekend errands.
Sunday: Warming Trend, Still Dry
Sunday will be another dry day. Morning temperatures will dip to the mid-60s before afternoon highs climb closer to 90 degrees. Even so, the low humidity will keep heat index values reasonable, so it will not feel oppressive.
Monday and Tuesday: An Extra Dose of Dry Air
An additional push of drier air arrives Monday, keeping both daytime highs and overnight lows comfortable. Tuesday should stay dry as well, making the first part of the workweek a good window for yard work and outdoor chores.
Why Wind Direction Matters
Wind direction makes a big difference in how the Gulf Coast feels. When winds blow from the south, they carry moist air off the Gulf, keeping humidity and overnight temperatures high. A north or northeast wind does the opposite, drawing in drier air from over land. That is why an upper-80s afternoon with dry air feels far more comfortable than the same temperature with a muggy southerly breeze, and why nights cool off so much more when the air is dry.
Weekend Tips
- Sun protection still matters. Late-September sunshine along the coast is still strong, even when the air feels comfortable. Sunscreen, hats and water are a good idea for anyone spending the afternoon outdoors.
- Plan for cool mornings. With lows in the 60s, and near 60 inland, early risers heading to morning events may want a light layer.
- Get outdoor chores done early in the week. The dry pattern should hold through Tuesday before showers and storms return Wednesday.
Forecast at a Glance
- Friday night: Clear and comfortable. Lows near 60 inland, around 65 near the coast.
- Saturday: Cool start, sunny and dry. Highs in the upper 80s. No rain.
- Saturday night: Lows in the mid-60s.
- Sunday: Dry and warmer. Highs near 90, with low humidity keeping the heat index in check.
- Monday: Extra dose of dry air. Comfortable highs and lows.
- Tuesday: Still dry.
- Wednesday: Moisture returns; scattered showers and storms possible.
- Thursday and Friday: Better chances of rain.
Earlier Outlook: The Heat Breaks
The pattern change followed one last hot, sticky day on Thursday, when highs climbed into the upper 80s and the heat index ran around 95 degrees. Drier air began creeping in late Thursday, and a northeast breeze swept the moisture out Friday, dropping morning temperatures into the mid-60s and afternoon humidity to around 40%. For many residents, it was the first stretch of weather since the start of astronomical fall that actually felt like the new season.
Tropical Update: Fay and Gonzalo Far Out in the Atlantic
In the tropics, forecasters are monitoring Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo in the far eastern Atlantic. Neither system is expected to affect the United States, and both are expected to dissipate by the end of the weekend.
Earlier in the week, forecasters also noted that some long-range computer models hinted at possible development in the southern Gulf or northwest Caribbean Sea in early October. Long-range signals like that can shift considerably from run to run, so any such development is far from certain.
That area still deserves attention this time of year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, and as the season moves into October, storms tend to form closer to home, in the western Caribbean and the Gulf, rather than far out in the Atlantic. Storms that form in those waters can reach the northern Gulf Coast with less warning than systems that develop off Africa, so it is a good time to make sure hurricane supplies and plans are still in order.
Update: Humidity, Beach Conditions and the Tropics
The latest outlook adds more detail on just how dry the air will be. Dew points are expected to hold in the low 60s on Saturday and could slip into the 50s across inland areas through Tuesday. That means afternoons that approach 90 degrees will still feel far more comfortable than is typical for the Gulf Coast in late September. Overnight lows should settle in the upper 60s near the coast and the lower 60s inland, and some of the far northern counties in the region could dip into the upper 50s.
Rain chances stay near zero through at least the start of the week, with moisture remaining below normal through Wednesday. By the end of the week, a trough moving in from the west is expected to bring back scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Beach forecast: Conditions look favorable for beachgoers. A low risk of rip currents is expected from Saturday through the middle of the week, with surf around 1 foot along the beaches of south Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle. Beach visitors should still follow the flag system and any instructions from lifeguards, since conditions can change.
Tropics: The Atlantic remains active with Tropical Storm Gonzalo near the Cabo Verde Islands and Tropical Depression Fay over the central Atlantic, well southwest of the Azores. Both systems have been weakening. The National Hurricane Center has noted that Gonzalo’s circulation has become poorly defined and expects it to become post-tropical over the next several days, while Fay had maximum sustained winds of around 35 mph early Saturday and is expected to weaken further as it turns generally southward. Neither system poses a threat to the Gulf Coast, and no coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
Related coverage from South AL News
- Low Humidity and Cool Mornings Hold Through Midweek, Then Heavy Rain Chances and Rip Currents Return to South Alabama
- Storms Fade Overnight, Tuesday Turns Quieter, and Then the Rain Comes Back Midweek
- Mobile Record High Falls at 90 Degrees as Post-Isaias Heat Lingers Before Weekend Cooldown
- Gulf Coast Weather Forecast: Sunny, Dry Stretch for Mobile and Baldwin Could Last Through October
