MOBILE, Ala. — The weekend weather outlook for the Gulf Coast finally carries some good news. After one more hot, sticky day on Thursday, drier air is set to push into south Alabama on Friday, setting up a pleasant, low-humidity weekend for Saturday, Sept. 26, and Sunday, Sept. 27. Afternoons will still be warm, but the oppressive heat index that has hung over the region is expected to fade away.
The change arrives just days after the start of astronomical fall, and for many residents it will be the first stretch of weather that actually feels like the new season. Here is what to expect, day by day, along with a look at the tropics.
Thursday: One Last Round of Heat and Humidity
Thursday is the final day of the muggy pattern that has gripped the region. Morning temperatures start around 70 degrees, a little cooler inland, with a humid feel to the air as the day begins.
Don’t expect much relief during the daytime hours. Highs will climb into the upper 80s, and the heat index — the “feels like” temperature that combines air temperature and humidity — will run around 95 degrees. That is not extreme by late-summer Gulf Coast standards, but it will still be uncomfortable for anyone working or exercising outdoors.
There is a small hint of what is coming. Drier air will begin to creep into the area during the afternoon, taking a slight edge off the humidity late in the day.
Friday: The Big Turnaround
The real shift happens Friday. Temperatures will drop into the mid-60s Friday morning, a noticeable change from Thursday’s start around 70 degrees. Afternoon highs will reach only the middle 80s.
An early northeast breeze will help sweep the moisture out. Humidity levels are expected to fall to around 40% during the afternoon — a dramatic improvement over Thursday’s muggy conditions.
Wind direction matters a great deal for how the Gulf Coast feels. When winds blow from the south, they carry moist air in off the Gulf of Mexico, keeping humidity and overnight temperatures high. A northeast wind does the opposite, drawing in drier air from over land. That is why a change in wind direction can make an 85-degree afternoon feel far more comfortable than an 85-degree afternoon with a southerly breeze.
Saturday and Sunday: A Pleasant Weekend Ahead
The weekend of Sept. 26–27 should feel downright pleasant. Afternoons will still be warm, with highs in the upper 80s both days, but the heat index will not be a factor thanks to the dry air in place.
Nights will be the real treat. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the mid-60s on both weekend nights, making for comfortable sleeping conditions and cool, crisp starts to the morning.
That combination sets up a good weekend for outdoor plans across Mobile and Baldwin counties, from high school and college football to yard work, fishing and festivals. A few reminders for the weekend:
- Sun protection still matters. Late-September sunshine along the coast is still strong, even when the air feels comfortable. Sunscreen, hats and water are a good idea for anyone spending the afternoon outdoors.
- Plan for cool mornings. With lows in the mid-60s, early risers and people heading to morning events may want a light layer.
- Check back before next week. Moisture and rain chances return early in the week, so the dry spell is a good window for outdoor chores.
Next Week: Moisture Returns
The dry pattern won’t last forever. Moisture begins moving back into the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday, bringing a chance of isolated showers and a return of muggy nights.
By Wednesday, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Anyone with outdoor plans for the middle of next week should keep an eye on later forecasts as the timing becomes clearer.
Here is the forecast at a glance:
- Thursday: Morning lows around 70, cooler inland. Highs in the upper 80s, heat index around 95. Drier air begins arriving late.
- Friday: Morning lows in the mid-60s. Highs in the mid-80s. Northeast breeze; humidity around 40%.
- Saturday: Highs in the upper 80s, no heat index concerns. Low in the mid-60s.
- Sunday: Highs in the upper 80s, pleasant and dry. Low in the mid-60s.
- Monday–Tuesday: Moisture returns, isolated showers, muggy nights.
- Wednesday: Good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical Update: Fay Fading, Wave Off Africa Being Watched
Forecasters continue to monitor activity in the Atlantic basin. A newly regenerated Tropical Depression Fay is drifting west over open Atlantic waters and is expected to dissipate by the weekend.
Farther east, an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a medium chance of development as it moves toward the northwest.
Neither system is expected to affect the United States. Still, forecasters will continue to monitor the southern Gulf and the northwest Caribbean Sea through the first week of October, as some long-range computer models hint at potential development in that region. Long-range model signals can shift considerably from run to run, so any such development is far from certain at this point.
That area deserves attention this time of year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, and as the season moves into October, storms tend to form closer to home, in the western Caribbean and the Gulf, rather than far out in the Atlantic. Storms that form in those waters can reach the northern Gulf Coast with less warning than systems that develop off Africa.
For now, there is no threat to south Alabama. Residents can enjoy the break in the heat this weekend, while it is still a good time to review hurricane plans and check emergency supplies before the final weeks of the season.