MOBILE, Ala. — South Alabama and the northwest Florida coast are enjoying a rare taste of early fall comfort, and forecasters say it will stick around for a few more days before moisture returns and brings the chance of heavy rain late this week and into the weekend.
A cooler, drier air mass remains in place across the region through the start of the week, keeping humidity low and overnight temperatures below normal. Daytime highs, however, are still running warm, climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s, with more widespread 90s expected by Tuesday and continuing through the end of the week.
Forecast at a glance
- Early week: Dry, sunny and comfortable, with low humidity; highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
- Driest day: Monday, with afternoon dew points potentially in the 50s across much of the region
- Overnight lows: Upper 60s along the coast, lower 60s inland; upper 50s possible in far northern counties Monday and Tuesday mornings
- Tuesday through week’s end: More widespread highs in the 90s
- Rain chances: Near zero through midweek; scattered to locally numerous showers and storms late week into next weekend, with locally heavy rain possible
- Beaches: Low rip current risk through Tuesday; Moderate Wednesday; High Thursday
- Tropics: No impacts expected for the Gulf Coast
A comfortable start to the week
Sunday brought another pleasant day across the Gulf Coast, with mostly dry conditions and temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s. That pattern continues into the early part of the week.
The biggest difference from a typical late-September stretch is the humidity. Dew points, a measure of how much moisture is in the air, will remain in the low 60s across the southwestern portions of the area and drop into the 50s farther northeast through Tuesday. Monday looks to be the driest day, with afternoon dew points potentially dropping into the 50s across much of the region.
For those who have lived through a Gulf Coast summer, that is a meaningful change. Dew points in the 70s, common in summer, make the air feel thick and heavy and make it harder for sweat to evaporate and cool the body. When dew points fall into the 50s and low 60s, the air feels noticeably drier and more comfortable. That means that even with temperatures near 90 degrees, it will feel much more pleasant than it typically does at this time of year.
Cool mornings, warm afternoons
Dry air cools off quickly after sunset, so the region is seeing a wide gap between morning lows and afternoon highs. Overnight temperatures will remain below normal, with lows in the upper 60s along the coast and lower 60s inland.
Some far northern counties in the region could even drop into the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. That will make for a crisp start to the day in some inland communities, a welcome preview of the fall weather many residents have been waiting for.
Those planning outdoor activities should take advantage of the cooler mornings and evenings. Afternoons will still be warm, so it remains important to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen and take breaks from the heat during outdoor work or exercise.
Rain chances return later this week
Dry weather will continue, with near-zero rain chances, through the middle of the week. That may be good news for outdoor plans, but lawns and gardens may start to need water after several dry days.
The pattern begins to change by Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. Moisture will increase as a trough moves in from the west and winds shift to a more southerly direction, pulling moist air in from the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture could climb well above normal for this time of year, setting the stage for scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms late this week and into next weekend.
With that much moisture in place, any showers and storms that develop could produce efficient rainfall, meaning they can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Locally heavy rain will be possible.
What heavy rain can mean
When storms produce heavy rain over the same area, especially in cities, water can collect quickly on roads and in low-lying areas. Drivers should remember a few simple safety tips:
- Turn around, don’t drown. Never drive through flooded roadways. Just a few inches of moving water can sweep a vehicle off the road.
- Slow down. Wet roads reduce traction, and heavy rain can make it difficult to see other vehicles.
- Turn on headlights. Headlights help other drivers see you in rain and low visibility.
- Watch for lightning. If you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck. Move indoors or into a hard-topped vehicle.
- Clear drains. Before rain arrives, homeowners may want to clear leaves and debris from gutters and storm drains near their property.
Beach forecast: Rip current risk rising
Beach conditions will remain favorable early this week, with a Low risk of rip currents through Tuesday and surf heights around 1 foot.
Conditions will become more hazardous by midweek as onshore winds increase. The rip current risk is expected to rise to Moderate on Wednesday and High on Thursday, with surf building to around 2 to 3 feet.
A High rip current risk means life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone. Beachgoers should follow the beach warning flags, swim near a lifeguard, and stay out of the water when red flags are flying. Anyone caught in a rip current should stay calm, avoid swimming directly against the current, and swim parallel to the shore until free before heading back to the beach. If you cannot escape, float or tread water and signal for help.
Rip currents are one of the leading weather-related dangers along the Gulf Coast, and they can form even on days that look calm and sunny from the shore. Lawmakers have recently discussed proposals aimed at water safety along Alabama’s coast, highlighting how seriously local officials take the danger.
Tropical weather summary
The tropics remain active in the Atlantic, but no threats are expected for the Gulf Coast at this time.
Tropical Depression Fay remains well west-southwest of the Azores. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the system, but it is far from the Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile, a surface trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual development, and the system could become a tropical depression by the early to middle part of this week. It is expected to move north at first before turning eastward over the central subtropical Atlantic, away from the United States.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives this system a 30 percent chance of development through 48 hours and a 40 percent chance through seven days.
For the Gulf Coast, no impacts are expected from either system. Forecasters will continue to monitor the tropics as conditions change.
Hurricane season is not over yet
While the quiet Gulf is good news, it is worth remembering that the Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. Historically, October has produced significant storms in the Gulf of America, and residents should keep their hurricane plans and supply kits up to date until the season ends. Checking forecasts regularly and knowing your evacuation zone remain the best ways to stay prepared.
The bottom line
Enjoy the low humidity and cool mornings while they last. The first half of the week will be dry and comfortable, despite afternoon highs near 90. By late week, deeper moisture returns, bringing a chance of showers and storms, some with heavy rain, along with rougher surf and dangerous rip currents at the beaches. Stay tuned for updates as the forecast for the weekend comes into better focus.