MOBILE, Ala. — A few strong to severe thunderstorms were possible Friday evening across South Alabama, but the system was expected to move through quickly and leave quiet conditions overnight — clearing the way for a hot, dry and largely cloudless weekend.
Friday evening: storm timing
Thunderstorms were forecast to develop Friday evening. Most were expected to remain on the weaker side, though a few could turn strong to severe. Residents were advised to keep a reliable way to receive weather alerts and to stay weather-aware during the evening commute and into the early overnight hours. Conditions were expected to calm once the line pushed through.
Saturday and Sunday: hot, dry and sunny
Rain chances drop off significantly through the weekend, which is welcome news for outdoor plans and considerably less welcome for anyone hoping for shade.
Saturday: Overnight lows dip into the mid-70s, with some inland areas falling closer to 70 degrees. Daytime highs climb into the mid-90s. The heat index should feel slightly more manageable than it has for most of this week.
Sunday: A similar setup, with very low rain chances and highs again near the mid-90s. The heat index, however, spikes to around 105 during peak afternoon heating. Sunday afternoon will be the most oppressive stretch of the weekend.
Anyone planning extended time outdoors should shift strenuous activity to the early morning, drink water well ahead of feeling thirsty, and take advantage of shade during the afternoon hours. Heat index values near 105 are more than a comfort issue — they carry genuine risk for children, older adults and anyone working outside.
Next week: some relief
Temperatures are expected to trend cooler next week as showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. Daytime highs back off into the lower 90s, which will feel noticeably more comfortable than the weekend.
Why storms stayed so limited this weekend
The reason for the quiet stretch was dry air pushing in from the north. Atmospheric moisture, measured as precipitable water, fell to around 1.5 inches or lower across the region — significantly drier than the moisture-rich air mass that fueled daily storms earlier in the week.
Less moisture means fewer clouds and fewer thunderstorms, even with temperatures very warm and plenty of instability still in place. The practical effect is a weekend that feels hot but noticeably less muggy.
Rain chances generally held around 10% to 20% each afternoon. Closer to the coast, where humidity stayed higher, a few localized heat index values could still reach 108 to 110 degrees.
The microburst risk in dry air
The isolated storms that did manage to develop carried a specific hazard worth understanding. Very dry air aloft enhances downdrafts inside a thunderstorm, allowing air to accelerate toward the ground and produce powerful, damaging wind gusts — a microburst.
That is why a forecast with only a 20% rain chance can still deliver tree and power line damage in a narrow area. Storms in this kind of setup are few, but the ones that form can hit hard and with little warning.
Monday: storm chances begin to increase
The pattern starts changing Monday as moisture returns to the Gulf Coast. A disturbance moving southeast from the northwest will bring increasing clouds and higher rain chances, and scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms become more likely as the atmosphere moistens.
Wednesday and Thursday: a more active setup
A second, potentially stronger disturbance is expected to move into the region around Wednesday and Thursday. By then, precipitable water values could climb to around 2.2 inches — plenty of fuel for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Multiple disturbances are forecast to move around the eastern side of a strong ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest, with each one capable of triggering another round of storms. It remains too early to determine whether a significant severe weather or flooding threat will materialize, but forecasters will be watching closely as moisture increases.
Even without a major disturbance, the combination of heat, moisture and instability should support scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms through the week.
Temperatures next week
More clouds and rain should keep temperatures closer to average. Highs are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values topping out around 100 to 107 degrees — a meaningful improvement over the extreme heat indices of recent days. The tradeoff is more frequent showers and storms.
Beach forecast
The Low Risk of rip currents continues through early next week. Beach conditions should generally remain favorable, though isolated thunderstorms can still produce dangerous lightning, heavy rain and sudden gusty winds. Anyone spending time near the water should keep an eye on the sky.
In the tropics
Forecasters are monitoring a couple of areas of disturbed weather in the open Atlantic. Both remain well away from the United States and are expected to stay over open ocean. Nothing in the current tropical outlook poses a threat to the northern Gulf Coast, though late August sits within the climatologically active portion of hurricane season and conditions warrant continued monitoring.