A slow-moving cold front pushing toward the Gulf Coast is expected to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Sunday morning, while dangerous rip currents and rough surf continue to threaten swimmers at area beaches.
Forecasters said storm activity was expected to pick up significantly Saturday evening after a relatively quiet afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms building over central Mississippi were forecast to track southeast into southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi around midnight before spreading across the rest of the Gulf Coast overnight, with storms reaching coastal communities after roughly 4 a.m.
While the strongest atmospheric energy is expected to stay north of the area, forecasters said enough instability will remain in place for a few stronger storm cells. Those storms could produce wind gusts up to 45 mph, heavy rainfall, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and brief drops in visibility.
Slow-Moving Front Raises Flooding Concerns Sunday
The front is expected to keep drifting toward the coast through Sunday morning before stalling near or just offshore. An additional disturbance moving through around sunrise is forecast to help storms redevelop along the boundary. Because the front will be moving slowly, forecasters warned storms could repeatedly track over the same areas, raising the risk of heavy rainfall totals.
Current forecast models suggest the heaviest rain, with localized totals of 4 to 6 inches, will likely stay just offshore. However, forecasters cautioned that if the front stalls farther south than expected, parts of the Alabama and northwest Florida coast could see those higher totals as well, raising the potential for flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Forecasters said pinpointing exactly where the front settles remains one of the bigger challenges heading into Sunday.
Highs Sunday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, though clouds and rain could keep some areas cooler.
Drier, More Comfortable Air Expected Behind the Front
The front is forecast to weaken and wash out Sunday night into Monday as the upper-level trough responsible for the unsettled weather moves east of the region. Behind it, a noticeably drier air mass is expected to move in, with dew points falling into the 60s across much of the area. Forecasters said that should make mornings and evenings feel considerably more comfortable after weeks of oppressive humidity.
Rain chances are expected to drop off significantly during the first half of next week, with any showers or storms largely limited to afternoon sea breeze activity near and east of Interstate 65. Afternoon highs will stay in the lower to middle 90s, but lower humidity should keep heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria for much of the week.
Beaches Remain Dangerous Through the Weekend
A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect through Sunday night for all Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf beaches. Persistent onshore winds ahead of the front continue to generate rough surf and powerful rip currents capable of pulling swimmers away from shore, forecasters said.
That risk is expected to ease to a Moderate Risk on Monday and drop further to a Low Risk by Tuesday as winds and surf gradually calm down. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible near the beaches overnight into Sunday, bringing additional lightning and gusty wind danger.
Hazardous Conditions Also Expected on the Water
Boaters should also brace for hazardous conditions through Sunday. Moderate to occasionally strong winds, combined with storms capable of producing higher gusts and reduced visibility, are expected to create difficult conditions on coastal waters. Forecasters urged anyone planning to be on the water to monitor the latest forecasts closely and be ready to seek safe harbor if storms move in.